SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

are you forgetting something else ... SSN reported oil...

  1. 10,782 Posts.
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    are you forgetting something else ...

    SSN reported oil production for Mar Qtr was 38,134 BO or 12,711/mth assuming even spread. BUT all we know it is declining (and seasonality also hurt). SSN absolutely must restore production rate otherwise they will have hedged over 100% of production. SSN says wells being returned to production but they have a history of disappointing owners.

    From May through Dec 2018 they have hedged 107,800 BO or 13,475 BO/mth at ceiling of $56.00 Also 915 BO for April at $63.00

    So to oversimplify
    ALL oil produced sold at $76 ($20 more than the hedge ceiling)
    Produce at 13,475 month (exactly what they have hedged)

    SSN receives $2,263,800 for selling 3 x 13,475 x $56 hedged barrels
    SSN "pays" $808,500 hedge loss from 3 x 13,475 x $20 ... i.e. that flows directly to hedge counterparty
    SSN receives NO BENEFIT from higher oil prices!!

    Produce at 18,475 month (5,000 BO more than they have hedged) or roughly Q3/17 level

    SSN receives $2,263,800 for selling 3 x 13,475 x $56 hedged barrels
    SSN pays $808,500 hedge loss from 3 x 13,475 x $20
    SSN receives $1,140,000 for selling 3 x 5,000 x $76 non-hedged barrels
    SMALL Upside from producing at Q3/17 levels

    More twists than a bagful of pretzels.
    Last edited by cmonaussie: 09/05/18
 
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