Well if by "haunt" you mean the share price rises then I'll happily take the haunting. Otherwise please do better than "showing an operating profit with production around 400/bls day".
Where do you want to start? Give TB the benefit of a year and a half of $100 oil before the downturn began end of 2014. That would start us at the HY report 2013 (Jul 1 - Dec 31 2-13) and takes us through the transformation with the Foreman Butte acquisition beginning 2016? Is that reasonable?
At the very bottom of this post is spreadsheet data taken from Morningstar showing each 6 months of operation. You'll of course know that some figures represent the "point in time" ending value (e.g. Total Equity would be the value on the balance at at that period close) and some figures represent the "value over period in time" such as Cash Flow from Operations.
At 31/12/2013 :Total shareholder equity = $54.8M
At 31/12/2017: Total shareholder equity = $1.3M
When Foreman Butte was acquired (in a state of "disrepair") it was producing 720 Bopd and we now have production as of the Qtrly of just 34,450/91 = 379 bopd. Fantastic effort.
From Jan 5, 2015 "Samson has tested whether it will have the capacity to fund the drilling of these wells. Samson’s internal cash flow analysis determines that the PUD value can be funded and the wells drilled in a 5 year time frame". My bolding.
This was the pricing used by SSN in that announcement
BTW, SEC average price for years 2015, 2016, 2017 turned out to be $50.28, $42.75 and $51.34 respectively.
And let's steer clear of BS here. SSN's own presentations (e.g. Enercom August 2016) state (slide 5) put Foreman Butte at
* Growth viable at $40 oil through workovers
* Growth viable at $40 oil through infill drilling
Their March 2017 Enercom presentation had Q4/16 avg production at 1,200 boepd and TB touting profitable at $40 oil (slide 9). Slide 26 says they would spend just $1.35M in Capex and be delivering 1,240 bopd (not boepd) in 2017. They got close on the Capex (reported at 1.83M)
Over that 4.5 year period
Total Operating Cashflow of $1.6M
Total Capex spent of $80.8M (not sure there's a lot to show for that)
Total Impairments recorded of $40M (goes a long way to explaining why Total Assets = $45M)
AND wait for it, the most common metric used by E&P companies because it "muffles" the cost of leverage and capital that needs to be invested to generating operating cash flow
EBITDAX = MINUS $40.7M (ok that's a little unfair as it has the non recurring charges - but it highlights where the capital went).
Last 6 month period (i.e. 1 Jul 2017 - 31 Dec 2017) EBITDAX = MINUS $2.1M
How kind am I in not reporting the Salaries and benefits paid during 4.5 year period.
If these are your measures of success I want you to draft my bonus plan. Can the bar be set lower - well yes I guess, they haven't filed for CH11. Me, I call it what it looks like - failure.
Morningstar database used
SSN Price at posting:
0.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
