CEL 1.41% 7.2¢ challenger gold limited

Ann: Webinar Presentation, page-9

  1. 1,141 Posts.
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    All up, pretty positive. KK more subdued than his previous ramping from the last couple of years which is a good thing. He couldn't help himself with the 'triple the SP' comment because this is probably justified on an historical basis on NPV to price. CEL should be sitting at about 40-50% of the NPV of Hualilan and that doesn't put value on Ecuador. But, all juniors are in the same boat, which he highlighted. ASX explorers/developers in Sth Am are all off about 60% from highs due to general sentiment.

    Will be interesting to see how much they get for Ecuador. The updated MRE will be done this month to Canadian standards ('read into that what you will') so a Canadian must have said they will buy it. If it's not Lumina, I will eat my hat. That will go some way to funding development or further exploration.

    The priority now seems to refine the Scoping Study into a PFS with slight tweaks on capex and POG assumption. They will likely use $1750 or $1800, even though POG may be sitting higher than $2K when it's adjusted.

    Investors and miners in the data room for finance. Not sure which miner would bother with a seven year 120K pa project, even though it's going to be very low capex and opex.

    The upside in producing gold as opposed to a concentrate for shipping seems fairly clear, an extra $150m at lower priced gold, so will be much higher if gold goes as most of us expect, unless they have to hedge for finance.

    At an $86m MC with a project NPV of $600-800m it looks way undervalued at this price - if they can take it forward.

    There was a question about Argentina inflation and its effect on development which he sidestepped which makes me a little suspicious. He thinks that the change in President and his policies will bring inflation down, possibly by the time Hualilan goes into development, but that's just not possible. Over 100% inflation does not switch to 5% in a few months or years, it's a very long term structural issue which will be very hard to fix. And, the President can't make these changes it's up to the congress. So, not clear at all on what the economic situation in Argentina means to get this forward.

    I'm actually tempted to buy more at this very very depressed price when POG looks like it's about to break out.


 
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