Associated News, page-26

This 26.10.22 link states Metals' Traders , since 30.9.22, now appear to be factoring in a ban being imposed, by the LME &/or Western countries, on Russian metals (not just aluminium)- which will cause Ni prices to rise.

The more valuable Ni becomes, the higher profits for QPM's refined Ni products.

Bloomberg said

"Aluminum traders are making bold bets in the options market to position for price SPIKES later this year, as the metals world weighs the possibility of restrictions on Russian supplies.

The London Metal Exchange is holding formal discussions about banning Russian metal, while the US government is considering a range of potential curbs on aluminum specifically, including possible sanctions on mining giant United Co. Rusal International PJSC...

Since Bloomberg first reported the LME’s plans in late September, the spread between the implied volatility of front-month aluminum puts and calls has surged — meaning that traders are paying more to get hold of calls that will pay off if prices spike.

At the end of the last month, the spread between near-the-money calls and puts — known as a risk reversal — showed that the market was valuing puts more highly, as a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook weighed heavily on prices.

Now, the preference for calls has reached levels seen only TWICE (all my emphases) in recent history: In 2018, when sanctions on Rusal sent prices soaring, and in March, as Russia invaded Ukraine".

https://www.mining.com/web/traders-bet-on-aluminum-price-surge-as-lme-weighs-russia-ban/