When I first read about the AVB "Enhanced Strategic Plan" coming in Q1 (Annual Results 2017) I cynically and superficially thought... yeah, just more optimistic grandiose plans that are out of date tomorrow. Wasted time.
But on thinking, the implications become clearer.
It seems (if one believes the Australian Mining article, and I do fully) that Centro is the next AVB project.
The implications (at least to me) are :
1. If the CentroGold permitting was still way off in the never-never, then publishing such a detailed/enhanced Strategy or Timing Plan could never be considered! Firm plans with projected dates.. a corporate roadmap... would be absurd if the next project had a permit-dependant start-date that could range from tomorrow to two years time!
That strongly suggests to me that the long-awaited Centro permit problem has been confidently resolved and the "issuing of a permit" date can now be accurately and positively projected... not just be "imminent". The starting gun is effectively fired.
If this were not so, such a Company Strategy offering definition as to where all these balls that are being juggled, interlock.... could never be published! The company would be laughed at.
2. Where before I was hoping for permitting approval by end this year (AVB previously suggested mid-year) it is not impossible that AVB, quiet as it may have seemed for a while, could be about to pull an unexpected rabbit out of a hat.
You do not make a rod for your own back (enhanced strategic plan) unless you know your prime-project start date, based on certainty of timing for Centro permit resolution.
3. The sudden public shuffling of Centro to the top of the project queue, as stated in the Mining article, suggests something very positive has happened.
So while there has been a lack of announcements perhaps, I would not interpret it as meaning that nothing exciting is happening at AVB.
Yes, where AVB has actually been going has been vague. A collection of promising projects. But this ENHANCED Strategy should tie it all together and that can surely only be facilitated by a certain statement of a date for permit clearance.
4. All the above has big positive and immediate implications for the current SP.
I draw my conclusions by logical reasoning from known facts so that the origins of any conclusions I arrive at can be seen, and agreed with or disagreed with at the discretion of the reader.
Not saying that there are no negatives to be found in AVB if one wants to look, but I would be very positive at the moment. Overall.
AVB Price at posting:
7.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
