AVZ (ASX) AVZ chart

Originally posted by setfire2thehive: ↑

Fair enough opinion, and i say this as a long bull but you can also have the counter argument for things that have changed for the worse since 2017. Spodumene price is way less than it was before, registry is alot larger (i.e. the same S/P price does not correlate to the same MC). But i do agree of course holistically that yes things are more developed than they were in 2017 in a number of ways. That said, that probably the case for 98% of stocks. You would hope to have made progress.

As this is the T/A thread and for those that support that as an investment style would probably agree when i say that technicals are the sum all knowns and unknowns and the technical indicators. i.e. if there is market uncertainty in a stock the S/P and technical indicators would incorporate this. Thus the comment of "this will have a mind of its own" for me in terms of technical evaluation would mean i shift to heiken ashi candles which smooth the data set and secondly i would move to a longer term timeframe. referring back to the monthly chart, it shows an overall positive trend and it did back in 2017 despite the S/P having a mind of its own.

Additionally the comment of this will take off with another offtake, again is/would be incorporated into the chart and S/P. The market is pricing in that occuring and is pricing in a likelihood. As time passes without anything occuring you'd expect the price to settle soften even pull back and the likelihood in imminent re-rate drops off. It's a classic example that i see about why people are boggled when the S/P doesn't go up after an announcement. It's about expectation. CBA actually went up after the royal commision bent them over the barrel. Why? market had priced in a worse outcome.

Unexpected news is what really shifts the dial up or down. This is generally why announcements don't send S/P skywards as alot buy/sell in the assumption of impending news. (for the record i stated around 17c would be the outcome if offtake is secured which was based off a % appraisal from the NPV. You could and some did make similar technical based indications. I don't think one is necssarily more accurate than the other, but the fundamental point i was trying to make was having knowledge of both is handy.

Also, i don't think anyone knows (for sure) whether it's going up or down and it's no more substantiated than someone saying AVZ will get finance this is going to be mined. They're both just opinions. The more you can support either comment with prevailing evidence the more respected the opinion becomes.

Inevitably there will be posts on HC which challenge owns thinking and mindset and overall i see this as positive to the forum. Ultimately tough, challenging discussions and opposing views and what the forum is all about. When threads become group think tanks it's generally dangerous and uneducational.

It may sound a little blunt, but i think if people don't want to see an opinion formulated on S/P direction with squiggly lines and no supporting macro evidence then probably avoid the T/A threads. Similarly if people don't want to see discussions/ramps up or down about how good lithium is, tesla, ev race, offtakes with europe etc etc then avoid the fundamental threads.

There's statistical based evidence which shows that one can invest/trade successfully over their lifetime using only technical based indicators and on the counter has been done on a fundamental perspective. this would probably indicate that it's not dumb luck on either side and whilst a percentage of technical posts and fundamental posts will be complete rubbish success on either part comes more from the individual applying the methods.

p.s. this post is not directed at you really at all, i've just responded to you post. The comments are just a follow up to my previous post so please don't take them as a direct challenge to yourself or your views which i respect.

SF2TH

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Appreciate you response and as always I respect your view hence a TU from me.