Totally agree why the US is in the position that it is. I have said for some time that one of the reasons for such a massive stimulus program was due to government inertia.
Re rates. the ones suggesting negative rates were in theory ideal I am sure are the same pundits that would have benefited from such lunacy i.e. banks & hedgefunds etc. Agree rates will be determined by inflation & one of the key indicators will be wage inflation. With employment becoming tighter & yet the average new job earns something like 1/3rd of what the lost jobs were earning i.e. burger flippers vs professional roles. Hence I think we will see quite a lift in wage costs. Energy costs I don't think will stay at the current low levels either. As if there is more growth, there will be more demand for energy. We are also seeing global commodity prices suffering as China is working through artificially high inventory levels that was being used as security for loans, sometimes three times the loan to security offered & more. As the Chinese government has clamped down on this & so the physical inventories that were being used for this purpose are suddenly surplus to requirements. Its impacting iron ore, oil, copper & gold etc. Some even say it has impacted dairy prices!
So once this surplus inventory has been worked through demand will return from China & prices will move higher including energy. US energy wont be impacted as much, however if they have their own growth it will.
I'm not saying there will definitely be raging or even mild inflation, however I think its very possible that there is enough to put pressure on interest rates. The rising dollar may assist your argument as I think it will crimp US growth to a degree & put a cap on equities in the medium term if they haven't already corrected prior.
