People dont appreciate we dont understand Efficacy yet.Highly...

People dont appreciate we dont understand Efficacy yet.

Highly likely management are holding cards fairly close to chest here imo.

I understand the sell off on

a) No use of word cure and delays, history
b) CR / ST SP fear

All on pretty low volumes right?

But bizarrely we've been told that weve cleared resevoirs? First to do so right?

WBs has a point re 'how good' but thats presumably addressed through the Efficacy statement released that indicates

a) its statistically significant, in line with historical (which were good). Ref Mice model
b) Illustrates potential for a new class of drug
C) No significant side affects
D) Per caspex, the potential for 225 to be a 'better' stand alone treatment (ie we dont know but may not need Cart)

Aside from the 'whats been happening in the background' uncertainty, I think an unstated positive of the delay is theres no apparent evidence of delayed side affects or issues, and we now have years elapsed since first human trials right?

if we dont have a 'CURE' we presumably wont fully understand efficacy until we have a longer study. Ie what if we could increase dosage, duration, add a 'adjutant' for enhancement ? Vitamin c?? Whatever (not a scientist). IF not a cure (now or with longer exposure) why not? Why does it work in part? Is it just about saturation or capacity to enter into requisite cells?

On the assumption that its moderately successful can we assume theres value in partial improvement? Slower improvement that nears complete improvement over time ? I couldnt be easily convinced there wasnt. If theres thousands of deaths pa in the western or near Western world per annum imo there will be zero risk of a government not wanting to a provide a solution especially at the most severe ends of these conditions c19/ hiv. That concept was supported (by inference) in the Jan qtrly release.

Google South Africa hiv costs and magnitude of the issue there, the failed vaccine attempt, the contentious issue around BP pricing of medication. The UK is targeting cure by 2030 if I recall. Demand outside BP directly os huge.

My understanding is that the typical process of essentially US appoval can be circumvented or fast tracked (CTAP for C19 is an example right?). As we have demonstrated improvement without side affects, I personally believe were in the starting blocks. All this conversation around cash position is imo secondary and the market may have royally ****** it up.

Holding, at the ready to buy. Admittedly when to go overweight is a challenge.

In summary, we have a unique solution now as I understand it. We need to know exactly how good it is or could be. Commentary suggests it is material, silence (in context) could imply its better than expected - ref conversations re disclosure. With even moderate success I personally think cash is utterly irrelevant. I genuinely believe I could get these guys funded myself with our connections on reasonable results. I assume management know same. BP deal could be great, equally an alternative could work or ultimately be better. Once demonstrated at the extremities, why wouldnt we head back for braodspectrum.

The market is full of sprinters, management are marathon runners.

This stock still represents the possibility of incredible returns imo. Personally Im still in at my base 'comfortable' allocation due to uncertainty and derisked as previously discussed, but 'at the ready'.

DYOR