Because it's virtually de-risked. Prior to that there was no...

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bernsta

4,372 Posts.

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15/04/24

15:16

Post #: 73351700
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Originally posted by Grainofsand: ↑

I'd agree with you if we hadn't already been in this position once before. We saw those climbs towards the anticipated September '23 FDA approval, but immediately prior to the same FDA decision we're expecting now in June, the SP didn't close above 21c. Why would the market view BOT worth so much more this time around, in anticipation of exactly the same thing - The market was expecting approval to commercialise a blockbuster drug last September, yet the SP didn't close above 21c immediately prior to the anticipated approval.

Admittedly, the science is not in question this time (last time it could've been, but it wasn't largely expected to be an issue), and there is more evidence of sales from Japan, but other than that, not much has changed from where BOT were last September, and where they are now. So can we expect it to go crazy between now and late June? I certainly hope it does, but just can't see any reason for it to do so myself. Then again, the market is often influenced by emotion, so I do have my fingers crossed. Maybe the market grossly undervalued BOT last pre-FDA approval? I am hopeful those bits of extra data (the science being in and sales evidence from Japan) might push BOT up into the higher 20's. Then I would expect a confirmed FDA approval to push it higher again.

PS - I have bought all the BOT I want, including purchases last week at 22c, so I am not in any way downramping!

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Because it's virtually de-risked. Prior to that there was no real certainty of approval realistically. It was still largely a binary events and we know how binary events go in this space. The market sold off prior to approval in case of the rejection, which happened.

Given that it's just the packaging, you'd think this would now be a non-issue going forward.

The product is clearly a stand out amongst what is out there. The management team is world class. Vinnie sold Anacor to pfizer for $5.2 billion. He's head and shoulders above the rest of the bio management teams on the ASX.

You also need to look at the comparative market caps of CU6 and MSB.

Botanix is severely lagging these and has a product a lot further in the piece.

The market is not pricing a lot of upside in here. We will re-rate heavily again shortly.

All in my humble opinion of course.

BOT Price at posting: 21.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
21 Upvote

5 Great analysis

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