The version of "Peak Oil" which I consider useful is when global oil production finally stops increasing regardless of the reason. Please note that this is very different to the version of "Peak Oil" in which the oil world simply can't produce any more. That version will never happen. Please note also that my preferred version of "Peak Oil" refers to oil, not gas or coal, and that even though there's absolutely stacks of oil still in the ground, there isn't enough to keep production increasing for - say - 10,000 years. So mathematically there has to be a peak at some time.
All indications are that Peak Oil can be at least as far away as 2040, and possibly quite a lot further. Anyone who wants to predict that the wildly expensive inefficient and low-energy-density renewables will dominate in more than 20 years time is welcome. I personally don't think renewables have a snowball's chance in Hades of competing with not-very-expensive efficient high-energy-density nuclear over that period, and I haven't even looked at any of the new technologies that may emerge and that maybe haven't even been thought of yet. Please note, in spite of rabid greens' ferocious efforts to make nuclear as expensive as possible, and as dangerous as possible in the public's mind, nuclear is still there in the mix and gaining support.
To my mind, renewables have been tried and have failed, in an atrociously heavy-handed expensive and futile experiment. The sooner they cease to receive economy-destructive preferential treatment, the sooner we can get on with developing real energy for the future.
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