Great post Andy. I've done some checking also and our data is similar but two small points probably in AVB's favour. We'll find out in due course of course but I don't believe AVB is seen as quite as high a risk as you are assuming therefore I believe the spread will be closer to the lower end you describe. My son in-law is an ex Brazilian investment banker (merger and acquisitions team) and said typical spreads (bound by the variables as you discussed) would be 3 to 7%. I know it's splitting hairs a little as an extra few % will mean nothing providing we have the expected cash flow.
Probably helps that Votorantim is a family conglomerate with extensive minerals ventures so I imagine they understand the risk better than some might. Time will tell of course.
AVB Price at posting:
8.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
