GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

Skol, I don't believe Gold is going to trade sideways or take...

  1. 284 Posts.
    Skol,

    I don't believe Gold is going to trade sideways or take until 2028 to bottom. The US economy is in much worse shape than it was in 1980, the world is about to come to terms with this and Gold will respond accordingly.

    In 1980, the US had a trade surplus, they now have a massive trade deficit and a staggering national debt. The 80's saw the intervention of Volcker, I believe he took rates to around 20%, there is no ways in hell that Yellen will take rates anywhere near 20%, I'd be surprised if she got anywhere near 1%. The monetary policies that supressed gold in the 80's simply aren't possible at the point, The US just has too much debt.

    The environment in which Gold now finds itself is vastly different to that 80's and 90's, I don't think it's rational to simply look at how Gold performed post the Bull market of the 70's as an indication of how it's going to perform in the next decade or so.

    If you want to look at history as a guide to future events, then it seems to me that it would be more logical to draw the conclusion that the USD is likely to fail before Gold does, especially given the fact that it's essentially failed twice before.

    Gold has never failed as a currency or as a money, it certainly isn't going to fail now.


    Cheers
    Ivan
 
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