Re Forecasting - Here's a followupWind (Installed) 6000MW -...

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Rob79

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11/04/19

19:55

Post #: 38104440
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Originally posted by Rob79: ↑

We could test the forecast theory tomorrow when a high pressure system moves across from WA to the eastern states. In the night it will be cold and there will be light winds. We have 6000MW Wind, 2500MW Utility Solar and around 7,000MW Rooftop solar. I estimate the NEM demand for electricity will increase above average of 22,000MW and the wind and solar will be around 600MW from around 6.00pm to 7.00am.

The new Dundonnell Wind farm is in Victoria South of the Salt Creek one so does little to diversify the concentration of wind output. For the diversified theory to be applied there should be no new wind or solar farms built in this region or they should only be built if accompanied with at least 12 hours storage. This wind farm has no storage.

Current wind output is also lower than the capacity factor used in the LCOE calculations and this means backup/storage would also be required today and therefore in theory may not be available tomorrow.

We have fortunately existing capacity to cover this today but that capacity is progressively being reduced. Everyday now we have live data to critically evaluate the past investment decisions and test the theories to ensure that new developments are consistent with the goal to increase reliability, lower cost and reduce emissions. The experiment is live and this situation is IMO not sustainable.

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Re Forecasting - Here's a followup

Wind (Installed) 6000MW - Forecast 600 Actual 1,000
Utility Solar 2500MW - Forecast 0 Actual 16
Rooftop Solar 7,000MW - Forecast 0 Actual 22

Total Installed = 15,500 MW Total. Forecast 600 vs Actual 1,026
Demand 25,500

Southern States were very low with good output in the two Northern Farms, Demand higher.
From https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/

Overall it highlights some challenges to balance grid which should be considered when approving new developments.
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