amp valuation spreadheet

I put together a simple spreadsheet which calculates the valuation of AMP shares after the retail raising occurs.

I assumed the following, based on what I read in the newspaper / broker valuations, etc.

Immediately after the 222 million institutional raising at $5.50, AMP has 1412 million shares on issue, and has been valued by fundmanagers at around $6.20 per share.

In the retail raising, they will issue $750m worth of shares at a discoount of 5% to the average market price over a nominated period. The lower this price, the more shares are issued, and the lower the total valuation per share for AMP. I am assuming that the $750m raised adds that value to AMP's net worth.
(This could change of course, the moment AMP get their hands on the money)

Based on all of that, I came up with the following information:

Price 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50
Retail Issue Price 5.23 4.99 4.75 4.51 4.28 4.04 3.80 3.56 3.33
Number Issued 143.54 150.38 157.89 166.20 175.44 185.76 197.37 210.53 225.56
New Shares on issue 1555.54 1562.38 1569.89 1578.20 1587.44 1597.76 1609.37 1622.53 1637.56
New Valluation per share 6.11 6.08 6.05 6.02 5.99 5.95 5.91 5.86 5.80
Retail Discount to Valuation 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.25 0.29 0.32 0.36 0.39 0.43

Sorry if the table doesn't line up, but if you follow the figures through you should be OK.

The basic finding of the table is the fact that the lower the retail price, the more the current holders get diluted, and the more the price should bounce back after the retail purchasers have been bought out.

I guess it all depends on how low the market will let the shares go. A preditor coulld probably pick up a good interest in the company by offering a small premium to the retail investors just after the issue closes.

what do you all think?