Well now that March is done, PAALP have released the March pricing averages and I have updated the Cash Margin model for those that care about company profitability.
Just to repeat - the numbers in BLACK are reported numbers (so either by SSN in prior Qtrly and operations update or if pricing related by PAALP in their price bulletins). The BLUE numbers in some way shape or form are an estimate or a derived value from known information. Example of that would be that SSN reported its "realized oil price" in PQ as $58.14 when the PAALP avg was $55.83. This means SSN received a premium of 4.1% and this premium is applied forward into this Qtr and explains why the realized oil prices are in BLUE when the index prices are in BLACK.
I made an outright guess for production of 42,136Boe for March (up 61% over Feb) and brings the total for the Qtr 86,127 Boe (up 77% QoQ). This is considerably higher production than Rob79's estimate done primarily to see what production was need for $0 Cash Margin for the Qtr.
An area of uncertainty still would be the LOE+taxes. I chose an amount that reduced the overall to $24.81/Boe as compared to $30.14/Boe in PQ. So every dollar saved there goes to making SSN Cash Margin +ve. If it came down by another $3.21 then this Qtr in theory will produce the same "cash" as PQ.
Here are the numbers - I'll leave it to the reader to draw their conclusions. Not sure of the order of reporting but most likely we get Mar Qtrly, then advisement of BB credit facility (which I am seeing as 8k filings as they occur), then the US 10Q?
Happy to make any (sensible & substantiated) improvements. GLTA.
SSN Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
