I hope this board appreciates your efforts - you're certainly putting in the hard yards.
I think the hedging impact may be partially explained by timing (I assume we are hedging the same amount of Bbl oil). Rare to be given enough info to estimate on a monthly basis but kudos to SSN for releasing it. Clearly hedges will have different values based on the day of the transaction as the oil fluctuates. So averaging over Qtr will have a different value than averaging over a month and even if you had the dailies. It's possible for SSN to sell a load on the day it spikes down or up and that could make a noticeable variance. When I change my estimate for Mar production it changes the estimate of the hedging value - and no change has occured in pricing just the relative difference between the contribution of "hedged barrels" vs "non-hedged" barrels.
The other thing is you're showing an expected negative cash margin for the Qtr. That's more bearish set of numbers than Cmon (although I did say I was bullish in the context of number of wells to come online and their previous guidance - which is unchanged but needs to be changed). Better wear some body armour
SSN Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
