Hi, I'm just a bit odd and find O&G is interesting. I think mgt...

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Rob79

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04/04/15

13:22

Post #: 15035315
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Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

Hi Rob,

I hope this board appreciates your efforts - you're certainly putting in the hard yards.

I think the hedging impact may be partially explained by timing (I assume we are hedging the same amount of Bbl oil). Rare to be given enough info to estimate on a monthly basis but kudos to SSN for releasing it. Clearly hedges will have different values based on the day of the transaction as the oil fluctuates. So averaging over Qtr will have a different value than averaging over a month and even if you had the dailies. It's possible for SSN to sell a load on the day it spikes down or up and that could make a noticeable variance. When I change my estimate for Mar production it changes the estimate of the hedging value - and no change has occured in pricing just the relative difference between the contribution of "hedged barrels" vs "non-hedged" barrels.

The other thing is you're showing an expected negative cash margin for the Qtr. That's more bearish set of numbers than Cmon (although I did say I was bullish in the context of number of wells to come online and their previous guidance - which is unchanged but needs to be changed). Better wear some body armour

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Hi, I'm just a bit odd and find O&G is interesting. I think mgt here give very good detail in their reports so a logical choice imo to try and understand unconventional oil.

I have updated my estimate after comparing with your numbers and your comments, main change was in the hedging and I have added some $$ to the LOE line as their could be some additional startup costs on those shutin's. They are just guesses based on the history and shouldn't be used for personal investment purposes as I really have no idea so safer to assume they are wrong until company report the actual numbers which I think is end of April.

I think the volume/price/mix calc's are right now and have corrected the signs but its been a while since I did this so any suggestions welcome. My old boss reads HC so if he corrects me I'll let you know.
All my opinion only which is biased by my personal views and understanding.
Cheers

PS. I have no O&G experience, this is a hobby.

Last edited by Rob79: 04/04/15

SSN Price at posting: 1.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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