Well found Hot Rock ! on the current AVB site.. which is actively maintained so must be believed when it comes to dates.
I thought that I had seen somewhere that AVB was expecting basic Centro licence resolution in Q3. Here it is H2. Seems consistent.
Anyway.... that current timing is great and realistic. Wow. Could not ask for better.
Importantly I note it firstly says "Achieving these targets (i.e. first gold production 2019) is dependent on achieving the following deliverables :
2017 Complete Scoping Study in Q4 2017 "
As this really, really tough first target (Scoping Studies being so demanding and finely detailed) has been achieved, the rest of the dates given have equal credibility. Great! I am delighted. 2019 here we come.
As for Centro timing...
1. Investor Presentation page 5 : "opportunity to fast track production, targeting end 2019"
2. It also says in the same Presentation page 17 "targeting production as early as the second half of 2019"
3. Website says "2019 first gold production"
So you can pick any quoted gold production time from some time in 2019, second half 2019, through to end 2019... to 5 years away which of course everyone knows is total nonsense and was only included in amended contract conditions to cover them in the event that this vague eventuality which is forbidden to be discussed here because of its near impossibility and unpalatability... is quite possible if the Brazilian Authorities play hard-ball... as m0ngy alluded to.. which of course is discounted because apparently m0ngy is not a nice and positive poster.
Confused?
I have decided that the Dreaded Truth is .. Centro timing is simply not known and cannot be known at this stage!! In mining, optimism is the go, especially optimistic timings. Optimistic best-case timing scenarios are posted for the punters, and glib excuses are very easily found for not achieving them. Fair enough. It is the game.
If it was me I would NOT be shouting out how incredibly profitable Centro is in any studies.. or whatever financial concessions are made to occupants could be doubled by their lawyers... and sensitive governments would maybe also get more demanding, if not offended. But then I am not on the spot. What would I know...
I believe AVB has the Best Management in the World and they are working as hard and diligently as they can to fire up Centro, maybe even buying cheap equipment on the side now? I put all my money where I put my faith. I have no real complaints, except that it is all getting a bit boring and the SP is in the doldrums.
With both Centro $90m? and PB $150m? both slated for production in 2019 apparently.. that is $240m or rather $240,000,000 required concurrently.. well I will not go there...
I am off to Perth in February and will try and say hello to Nick and ideally Scotty too! The fact that my consolidated AVB holdings put me in the middle of the Top 20 shareholders should at least get a free coffee, if not some insider info (in my dreams!).
I want the next extension to AN to be called Poet's Pit.. and I will be pushing Scotty for that.
No doubt I will come back full of wildly optimistic and positive posts about AVB then!!
AVB Price at posting:
8.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
