Analysis from the ABC's experts“The budget sets up a...

Analysis from the ABC's experts

“The budget sets up a climate debate that, for the first time in a long time, might actually be about something

“After decades of privatisation and shrinking government, the Future Made in Australia plan is a radical shift. No matter how rigorous and robust the framework, it carries risk.

Economists are sceptical

There are, of course, more valid concerns being expressed by economists about the government's Future Made in Australia, beyond whether a billionaire happens to be involved in a project.

Those concerns include the need for independent oversight, clear rules for how decisions are made, and exit ramps to avoid subsidising failing projects.

Alongside this week's budget, Treasury issued a "supporting paper" to address at least some of these concerns and explain more of the government's thinking.

The paper, however, makes clear that Treasury is enthusiastic about taxpayers backing some industries more than others.

It gives the biggest tick to green hydrogen production, suggesting there's a "strong case" to foster this industry in Australia. Next comes green metal production (which would rely on hydrogen), with Treasury suggesting Australia has "significant potential" here.

Critical minerals processing "may" require public support, according to Treasury, while manufacturing solar panels and batteries in Australia appears to be the least popular idea.

Treasury points out that the US, Europe, Canada, France, and India are all investing heavily to create more diversity in these industries, which China currently dominates. As long as Australia has strong trade relationships with these countries, we should still be able to buy plenty of cheap solar panels to meet our needs.

It certainly doesn't suggest there's a "strong case" to subsidise solar panel or battery making here, despite the Treasurer already allocating $1.5 billion to help kickstart local manufacturing.

The government still has plenty of work to do explaining its Future Made in Australia plans to voters and sceptical economists. But it now has a clear difference to the opposition.

Labor's chosen critical minerals, hydrogen, and green tech. It has a "vision" of a new-look economy and some detail on the table.

The Coalition is going nuclear and is yet to explain how its plans will work. Presumably billionaires won't be involved.