ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICSCO2 Negligible future warming from: CO2 – CH4 – N
This article is one for the apocalyptic climate change ( modellers ) muddlers who preach that mankind is doomed in the near term without cutting CO2.
If the climate change zealots on hot copper can complete this article they will be educated away from their usual information diet of Kerry, Flannery , Guterres Thunberg and the ABC
From edmhdotme
Ed Hoskins As at its current concentration atmospheric CO2 at 420 ppmv is already more than 85% saturated, its Global warming potential is almost entirely exhausted.
All attempts by Mankind to limit further CO2 emissions will have no further significant controlling effect on Global temperature.
Further actions by the Western minority of Man-kind to protect against a supposed Global Overheating Catastrophe from CO2 emissions are pointless. Introduction
A cogent case can be made that all future Man-made emissions of the minor Greenhouse gasses are:
irrelevant to the future of the World’s climate.
cannot pose any real overheating problem in future.
certainly not imposing any existential disaster for Mankind.
this is fortunate as the developing world, 80+% of the global population, is taking no notice of the alarm about CO2 emissions causing Global Overheating that is now fashionable in the West.
instead
atmospheric CO2, even at its current historically low level, is making a huge and absolutely essential contribution to the well being of Planet Earth via it support of photosynthesis and healthy plant growth.
These analyses, they show that:
as at the current CO2 level of 420ppmv the effectiveness of CO2 as a warming agent is now almost fully saturated.
there is no possibility of any overheating Climate emergency, nor any future temperature Catastrophe caused by increasing Man-made CO2 emissions from burning of Fossil Fuels.
there is now no rational imperative for Western economies to eliminate CO2 or other Greenhouse Gas emissions from Methane and Nitrous Oxide by implementing their Net Zero policies.
there is no reason whatsoever to try to control Methane or Nitrous Oxide emissions to avoid Global Warming. The inherent chemistry of these powerful Greenhouse gasses means that any extra emissions are always be rapidly purged in the Earth’s Oxygen rich atmosphere, leaving only small residues in the atmosphere, only measurable in parts per billion, resulting in a minor and static effect on Global temperature.
Although studiously ignored by Climate Alarmist thinking, the Water in the atmosphere either as Water Vapour or as Clouds is the main Greenhouse Gas, accounting for roughly 85% – 95% of the total warming effect or about ~30°C of the estimated ~+33°C Greenhouse effect. The Greenhouse effect of Water in the atmosphere varies according to latitude, local climate and local humidity roughly within that range. Mankind has no influence on the amount or distribution of water in the atmosphere. The water-based Greenhouse effect of ~+30°C is essential to the continuance of all life on Earth.
The Water in the atmosphere maintains the habitability of the planet and thus supports all Life-on-Earth.
This note and its illustrations show the context, proportionality and scale of the temperature effects of the minor greenhouse gasses emphasizing their future irrelevance. Note: the values shown here are deliberately approximate, as indicated by the symbol “~”. The values here show minimal values for the temperature effect of CO2 and other Greenhouse gasses. Actual values are more variable according to local climate conditions, humidity, longitude, etc. Nonetheless, the values are at the right scale and in the right ball park. The long-term context of the atmospheric composition and temperature
The diagrams below summarize the evolution of the Earth’s atmosphere over the past 4.6 billion years and show global variations in temperature and CO2 concentration over the more recent the Phanerozoic eon, the last ~600 million years, the period over which the whole of advanced Life-on-Earth has emerged.
Over most of Phanerozoic eon Global temperatures have been substantially higher than at present, (+~ 15°C ). Global temperatures are now low by comparison.
About 2.5 million years ago the Earth entered an Ice Age, with permanent ice sheets at both poles. Long cold periods lasting ~1000,000+ years are interspersed by shorter inter-glacial periods of ~10,000+ years. This pattern is established by the mechanics of the Solar System and its Milankovitch cycles.
The more recent temperature pictures show a massive decline that started some 55 million years ago. And the history of our current Holocene inter-glacial shows that any temperature recovery from the recent little ice age is marginal in comparison with more significant variations even in the recent past.
Over most of the 600 million year Phanerozoic eon Global temperatures have been substantially higher than at present, (+~15°C ). Global temperatures are now low by comparison.
About 2.5 million years ago the Earth entered an Ice Age, with permanent ice sheets at both poles. Long cold periods lasting ~100,000+ years are interspersed by shorter inter-glacial periods of ~10,000+ years. This pattern is established by the mechanics of the Solar System and its Milankovitch cycles.
The more recent temperature pictures show a massive decline that started some 55 million years ago. And the history of our current Holocene inter-glacial shows that any temperature recovery from the little ice age is marginal in comparison with more significant variations even in the recent past.
Our current Holocene inter-glacial is the most recent of those warmer inter-glacial times. The warmer Holocene epoch of the last ~10,000+ years has been the enabler of the development of Man-kind’s civilizations, from the stone age to computing.
Judging from past inter-glacials after ~10,000 years, our current Holocene period, should be drawing to its close, sometime this century, next century or this millennium.
The ending of the Holocene and the subsequent reversion of the World to real Ice Age conditions will result in a true catastrophe for the World and Humankind.
There is now a real risk that the inexorable Carbon sequestration processes progressing in the world’s oceans will lead to atmospheric CO2 levels falling below the Photosynthetic terminal level of 150ppmv during some future Glaciation. With the eventual failure of Photosynthesis from lack of atmospheric CO2, all Life-on-Earth will end in some future Glacial period. There is even a chance that the happenstance of Man-kind’s current activities, adding to CO2 levels by burning fossil fuels may raise the threshold of atmospheric CO2 and thus delay the final steps of the CO2 sequestration process and even prolong the survival of life on Earth.
For the last 100 million years atmospheric CO2 levels have been reducing progressively. At the start of our current the Holocene epoch only 20,000 years ago, the CO2 level had fallen to 180ppmv. This was only 20% above the terminal level for all Life-on-Earth, (Photosynthesis fails below 150ppmv).
With industrialization and the exploitation of Fossil fuels Man-kind has made especially rapid technical advances over the last 200 years. This has resulted in huge advances in the well-being for the majority of the 8 billion people now sustained by planet Earth. The radiation physics of atmospheric CO2 by Professor William Happer
This presentation by Professor William Happer provides an explanation of the atmospheric radiation physics shows that the temperature effectiveness of CO2 diminishes logarithmically. At the current 420pppmv the temperature effect of atmospheric CO2 is ~85% saturated. Any possible future CO2 temperature effects are well below any of the Alarmist and official predictions that are asserted by the Climate Modelling of the IPCC, (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Professor Happer’s specialism is the radiation physics of energy transfer in the atmosphere. In the early 1990’s, whilst Director of Energy Research in the U.S. Department of Energy during the George Bush presidency, Professor Happer was responsible for setting up many of the American Climate Research establishments.
