I agree with just about everything you say - the only two things I see as points of note being:
1) that unusual situation, with an ever decreasing availability of shares which
@vincent6319 also referenced, I see as akin to a double-edged sword - insofar as, the lack of liquidity
could (as it has thus far) force the hands of the impatient and feed into the buyer who we can only assume is happy to bide their time over the next ~150 trading days until the deadline of Feb 28 2019. For example, with 700k shares up for sale at 2.4c today - which is a fair chunk of that 13m, yet only 1 pip higher than the buy price - they've not been picked off yet, either due to pickiness or the 5% VWAP restriction which may work against the notion of there being any urgency as well.
2) The potential share price increase of over 50% is definitely healthy, if it transpires. I'm always cautious when it comes to playing against the 'big' guys who set up these sort of transactions, so I'd rather opt to back myself in to to reach those gains earlier via another investment.
But each to their own. I
genuinely wish good luck with things. Admittedly, MSP hadn't even come up on my radar until FFT went sniffing around, then I started looking into it as an arbitrage opportunity. And if I was confident there was one there, I'd be interested myself. Anyhow, I only hope a mutual win can be achieved for everyone.