Hi madamswer,
"Do you [*] have a view on why the number of recorded infections in Australia is not tracking the predicted R-zero exponential function, noting that the incubation period is 10-14 days and the lockdown measures have only been implemented in any real meaningful manner in recent days?"
I think charting the estimated reproductive number of approx 2 with confirmed cases provides important data however I believe with the current flattening of the curve insights being purveyed in Australia we're actually at an infliction point right now which is corroborated with the following;
All foreigner travellers were banned from entering Australia from Friday, 20/03/2020 (12 days ago)- PM Media Release
Incubation period of 1 to 14 days, with amedian of 5 to 6 days- Information for Clinicians: Frequently Asked Questions
Due to a global shortage of the test kits that pathologists use to diagnose COVID-19 Australia is only doingtargeted [*] testinginstead of widespread testing - www.health.gov.au
You will only be tested if your doctor decides you meet the criteria:
- You have returned from overseas in the past 14 days and you develop respiratory illness with or without fever
- You have been in close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case in the past 14 days and you develop respiratory illness with or without fever [*]
- You have severe community-acquired pneumonia and there is no clear cause
- You are a healthcare worker who works directly with patients and you have a respiratory illness and a fever
[*] I note the St Vincent’s Hospital COVID-19 testing clinic in the Bondi Pavillion on 01/04/2020 re'close contacts with a confirmed cases'are further restricted to only those who have been notified by a Public Health Unit - St Vincent's Hospital Sydney
While I remain critical of the governments handling of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia it's important to note that blame cannot really be attributed to them for a lack of testing. Indeed our efforts in this area have been far more proactive than the US and a shortage of testing capabilities remains a global issue. However given that PR is very high on the agenda of politicians my previous post was conveying a cynical view in relation to the conflicting words Vs actions of a reactive government... plenty of mixed messaging from the likes of Hunt and NSW,Berejiklian who have both credited the flattening of the curve to stricter isolation measures which have only just recently been implemented (within the incubation period). Berejiklian was also on our TV screens only days ago stating that there was absolutely no rationale for closing schools???
Could it be possible that the poor performance of Border Force at our airports, Morrison's promoting of large gatherings and the Ruby Princess debacle within the past few weeks have already led to untraceable community transmissions that the government have become aware and reluctant to report on until the finger can be pointed elsewhere? Bondi and surrounding beaches in Sydney which have been closed over the past 10 days continue attracting an unusual amount of government/media attention. Could this be the perfect scapegoat opportunity for perfect execution starting in (<14 days incubation) 4 days?
Just a conspiracy theory perhaps but who knows. All governments need to be completely transparent during a serious global health crisis.
On another note I think we both agree that everyone posting on social media platforms must be mindful of compassion towards the infected and importantly our appreciation and support of all front-line healthcare workers who were already the unsung heroes before this war even began.
Covid-19 NPI Modelling
Coronavirus World Data
Covid-19 Map John Hopkins University
