16thJanuary 2024
Tuesday
On Tuesday,January 16th, significant news announcements are on the horizon forGreat Britain, Canada, and the United States. Great Britain is poised to unveilits Claimant Count Change, Canada has scheduled the release of its ConsumerPrice Index (CPI), and the United States is anticipated to announce its EmpireState Manufacturing Index. These announcements hold the potential to impactvarious sectors and markets, making them events to closely monitor in thecoming days.
GBP - Claimant Count Change
While oftenconsidered a trailing metric, the count of individuals without employmentremains a vital gauge of the broader economic well-being due to its strongcorrelation with consumer spending. Additionally, unemployment holds significantimportance in the decision-making processes of those responsible for shapingthe nation's monetary policies.
In November2023, the United Kingdom experienced a notable increase in the number ofindividuals claiming unemployment-related benefits. The count rose to 16,000, asignificant jump from the 8,900 reported in October. This figure marked asubstantial departure from the average monthly claimant count of 1,640, whichhad been maintained from 1971 through 2023. This data underscored the dynamicnature of the UK's job market. The highest claimant count on record was 860,400in April 2020, reflecting the profound impact of the pandemic on employment. Incontrast, the lowest count was recorded in June 2021, with a decrease of169,200 in claimants, signaling a period of recovery and resilience in the jobmarket.
TL;DR
Date
Claimant Count
Remark
1 October 2023
8,900
Prior month's data
2 November 2023
16,000
Significant increase from October
3 1971 - 2023
1,640 (average)
Average monthly claimant count over this period
4 April 2020
860,400
Highest record, impacted by the pandemic
5 June 2021
-169,200
Lowest record, indicating recovery
The predictionfor the Claimant Count Change indicates a decrease to 3.0K, lowerthan the prior figure of 16K.
The next release of the Claimant Count Changeis scheduled for January 16th at 7:00 AM GMT.
The last time, the British Claimant CountChange data was released on the 12th of December, 2023. You mayfind the market reaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:CAD – CPI m/m
A majority of overall inflation is drivenby consumer prices. Inflation significantly impacts currency value asincreasing prices compel the central bank to hike interest rates, adhering totheir mandate to contain inflation.
Unexpectedly, inNovember 2023, Canada saw a slight 0.1% rise in consumer prices compared to theprevious month, contrary to the market's anticipation of a 0.1% decline. Thisunforeseen increase in consumer prices was largely due to a small 0.1% increasein gasoline prices, which happened even as crude oil benchmarks continued tofall during that time.
Canada's ConsumerPrice Index (CPI) is on the brink of a significant turnaround. The latestforecast for the month-on-month (m/m) period suggests a noteworthy declineof -0.2%, a stark contrast to the previous month's modest 0.1% uptick.This anticipated change in CPI reflects evolving economic dynamics and may haveimplications for consumers and policymakers alike.
The last time, the Canadian CPI m/m wasannounced on the 19th of December, 2023. You may find the marketreaction chart (CADJPY M5) below:CAD - Median CPI y/y
The bulk ofoverall inflation is attributed to consumer prices. The significance ofinflation to the valuation of currency stems from the fact that escalating pricesprompt the central bank to increase interest rates, in line with theircommitment to controlling inflation.
In November2023, Canada's median Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-on-yearincrease of 3.4%, maintaining the growth rate observed in the previous monthand slightly surpassing the market's expectations of a 3.3% rise. Historically,between 1990 and 2023, Canada's median CPI averaged 2.08%, peaking at 5.00% inJune 2022 and reaching its lowest at 0.90% in November 1997.
The forecast forCanada's Median Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year remains steadyat 3.4%, with no variation from the previous figure.
The last time,the Canadian Median CPI y/y was announced on the 19th ofDecember, 2023. You may find the market reaction charts (CADJPY M5) below:
CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
Consumer pricesconstitute the majority of total inflation. Inflation plays a crucial role indetermining the value of currency, as increasing prices compel central banks toelevate interest rates in adherence to their mandate of containing inflation.
In November2023, Canada's trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-yearincrease of 3.5%, reflecting the same growth rate as the previous month andexceeding market expectations of a 3.3% rise. From 1990 to 2023, the averagetrimmed-mean CPI in Canada was 2.04%, reaching a peak of 5.60% in June 2022 anda low of 0.80% in December 1997.
The forecast forCanada's year-over-year Trimmed Median CPI remains unchanged at 3.4%,consistent with the previous month's figure.
The CPI m/m,y/y, and trimmed data for Canada is scheduled to be released on January16th at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time,the Canadian Trimmed CPI y/y was announced on the 19th December,2023. You may find the market reaction charts (CADJPY M5) below:
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
The Empire StateManufacturing Index stands as a key indicator of economic vitality. Businessesrapidly adjust to market dynamics, and variations in their outlook often serveas early indicators of upcoming economic activities, including expenditure,recruitment, and investment.
In December2023, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index experienced a sharp decline to-14.5, its lowest in four months, reflecting a reduction in New York’s businessactivity. This represented a significant drop from the 9.1 reading in Novemberand was far below the anticipated forecast of 2. The index revealed acontinuous decrease in new orders for the third consecutive month, dropping to-11.3 from -4.9, while shipments also fell, moving from 10 to -6.4.Additionally, there was a notable ongoing decrease in unfilled orders (-24compared to -23.2), and delivery times shortened more rapidly than at any pointsince the pandemic began, as indicated by the change from -6.1 to -15.6. Inventorylevels also saw a decrease, going from 9.1 to -5.2. Employment experienced aslight decrease (-8.4 from -4.5), with a marginal reduction in the averageworkweek (-2.4 compared to -3.8). However, there was a decrease in the rate ofinput price increases (16.7, down from 22.2), while the rate of increase inselling prices remained relatively stable (11.5, slightly up from 11.1).Despite these challenges, firms showed a slight uptick in optimism in December,with the index at 12.1, up from -0.9, yet they remained cautious aboutnear-term prospects.
TL;DR
Index Component
December 2023 Value
Previous Value (November)
Change
Notes
1 Overall Index
-14.5
9.1
Sharp decline
Lowest in four months; far below forecast of 2
2 New Orders
-11.3
-4.9
Decreased
Continuous decrease for the third consecutive month
3 Shipments
-6.4
10
Decreased
Significant drop
4 Unfilled Orders
-24
-23.2
Decreased
Ongoing decrease
5 Delivery Times
-15.6
-6.1
Shortened rapidly
Fastest rate since pandemic
6 Inventory Levels
-5.2
9.1
Decreased
Notable drop
7 Employment
-8.4
-4.5
Slight decrease
Indicates reduction in workforce
8 Average Workweek
-2.4
-3.8
Marginal reduction
Slight decrease in hours worked
9 Input Price Increases
16.7
22.2
Decreased rate
Slower increase in input prices
10 Selling Prices
11.5
11.1
Relatively stable
Slight increase
11 Business Optimism
12.1
-0.9
Increased
Firms slightly more optimistic, yet cautious about near-term prospects
The forecast forthe Empire State Manufacturing Index suggests an improvement to -7.1,up from the previous reading of -14.5.
The next releaseof the Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for January 16that 1:30 PM GMT.
The last, the USEmpire State Manufacturing Index was announced on the 15th ofDecember, 2023. You may find the market reaction chart (AUDUSD M5) below:
