8thFebruary 2024
Thursday
On February 8th, significanteconomic updates are expected as China announces its year-over-year ConsumerPrice Index (CPI) data, and the United States releases its latest figures onUnemployment Claims, providing key insights into the economic health of two ofthe world's leading economies.
CNY – CPI y/y
The bulk of overall inflation is driven by consumer prices. This aspect of inflation is crucial for the valuation of currency, as escalating prices prompt central banks to counteract by increasing interest rates.
In December 2023, China's consumer prices experienced a decline of 0.3% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive month of reduction, which represented the longest streak of decline since October 2009. The figures were slightly better than market forecasts, which anticipated a 0.4% decrease, and showed a moderation from November's steepest drop in three years of 0.5%. Food prices saw a less pronounced decrease since September, declining by 3.7% compared to 4.2% in November, as the fall in pork prices softened. Meanwhile, non-food inflation saw a slight increase to 0.5% from 0.4%, driven by rising costs in clothing (1.4% from 1.3%), housing (steady at 0.3%), health (1.4% from 1.3%), and education (steady at 1.8%), while the decrease in transport prices became less severe (-2.2% from -2.4%). Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, saw a year-over-year increase of 0.6% in December, maintaining the rate observed in the previous two months. Over the full year, consumer prices witnessed a modest rise of 0.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI inched up by 0.1%, indicating the first increase in three months, yet it was below the consensus expectation of a 0.2% increase.
TL;DR
Indicator
December 2023
Change from Previous Month
Change from November 2023
Year-over-Year Change
1 Overall CPI
-0.3%
+0.1%
Moderation from -0.5%
-0.3%
2 Food Prices
-3.7%
Not specified
Improvement from -4.2%
-3.7%
3 Non-Food Inflation
+0.5%
Not specified
Increase from +0.4%
+0.5%
4 Clothing
+1.4%
Not specified
Increase from +1.3%
Not specified
5 Housing
+0.3%
Steady
Steady at +0.3%
Not specified
6 Health
+1.4%
Not specified
Increase from +1.3%
Not specified
7 Education
+1.8%
Steady
Steady at +1.8%
Not specified
8 Transport Prices
-2.2%
Improvement
Improvement from -2.4%
Not specified
9 Core CPI (excl. Food & Energy)
+0.6%
Steady
Steady at +0.6%
+0.6%
The CPI y/y forecast is anticipated to improve to -0.1% from its previous value of -0.3%.
The upcoming CPI y/y data is scheduled for release on February 8th at 1:30 AM GMT.
USD - Unemployment Claims
While typically seen as a trailing measure, the unemployment rate is a crucial indicator of the economy's well-being, given its strong link to consumer spending, which is closely tied to the state of the job market. Additionally, it plays a significant role in guiding the monetary policy decisions made by the country's policymakers.
The U.S. has witnessed a notable increase in unemployment claims for the second week in a row, with the latest figures reaching 224,000 in the week ending January 27th, the highest since mid-November, and exceeding the anticipated 212,000. This rise reflects a growing trend of job market instability, underscored by a rise in the 4-week moving average of claims to 207,750. Regionally, the most significant spikes in claims were observed in California, New York, and Oregon, whereas Illinois and Missouri saw notable decreases. Moreover, the number of continuing claims, indicating those still receiving unemployment benefits, escalated to 1,898,000, the highest in nine weeks, suggesting an increase in the duration of unemployment for many Americans. This series of increases in unemployment claims highlights concerns regarding the labor market's health and may influence future economic policies.
TL;DR
Indicator
Most Recent Data
Previous Data
Regional Highlights
Implications
1 Weekly Unemployment Claims
224,000 (week ending Jan 27)
Exceeded 212,000 (anticipated)
Spikes: California, New York, Oregon. Decreases: Illinois, Missouri
Indicates job market instability; highest since mid-November
2 4-Week Moving Average
207,750
Increased from prior weeks
Not specified
Reflects growing trend of instability
3 Continuing Claims
1,898,000
Highest in nine weeks
Not specified
Suggests increased duration of unemployment for many
The forecast for Unemployment Claims suggests a minor uptick in numbers, rising to 227,000 from the previous figure of 224,000.
The upcoming release of the UnemploymentClaims data is scheduled for February 8th at 1:30 PM GMT.
