9thFebruary 2024
Friday
On February 9th, Canada is setto release key employment data, including updates on Employment Change and theUnemployment Rate. This announcement is eagerly anticipated as it providescrucial insights into the country's labor market and overall economic health.
CAD –Employment Change
The creation of jobs serves as a pivotal forward-looking measure for consumer expenditure, which constitutes the bulk of total economic activity.
In December 2023, Canada experienced a slight uptick in job numbers, with an addition of merely 100 positions, marking a notable deceleration from the 24,900 jobs created in November and falling below the expected 13,500 increase. The employment landscape saw significant contractions in sectors such as wholesale & retail trade, which lost 21,000 positions, and manufacturing, where 18,000 jobs were cut. Conversely, positive momentum was observed in fields like professional, scientific & technical services, which welcomed 46,000 new roles, health care & social assistance, adding 16,000 positions, and other services, which expanded by 12,000 jobs. The pace of job creation in December remained flat at 0.0%, consistent with the minimal shifts observed in November (0.1%) and October (0.1%). In comparison, the average job growth per month in the second half of 2023 was 23,000, a decline from the 48,000 monthly average seen in the first six months, against an average monthly population increase of 79,000.
TL;DR· In December 2023, Canada added only 100 jobs, sharply down from November's 24,900 and below the expected 13,500.
· Major job losses occurred in wholesale & retail trade (-21,000) and manufacturing (-18,000), while significant gains were in professional services (+46,000), health care (+16,000), and other services (+12,000).
· Job creation pace in December was 0.0%, mirroring the minimal changes in November and October.
· Second half of 2023 saw an average monthly job growth of 23,000, a decrease from the first half's 48,000, against a monthly population increase of 79,000.
The Employment Change forecast stands at -0.5K, which is a decrease compared to the previous result of 0.1K.The upcoming Employment Change data is set to be announced on February 9th at 1:30 PM GMT.
CAD -Unemployment Rate
Although typically considered a delayed reflection of economic conditions, the total number of unemployed individuals is a crucial indicator of the economy's overall well-being due to the strong relationship between the state of the job market and consumer spending.
In December 2023, Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%, consistent with the 22-month peak observed in November and slightly better than the anticipated 5.9%. This outcome, while surpassing market forecasts, continued to highlight the weakening trend in the Canadian labor market, in line with other indicators of decelerating economic growth. This trend has been putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to accelerate its easing of monetary policy. The count of unemployed people increased marginally by 4,800 to reach 1,245,200 during this period. This was due to a rise in unemployment among the older population (+18,300) which outweighed minor decreases in unemployment among the prime working-age group (-4,400) and the youth (-9,200). Meanwhile, the economy saw a net addition of 100 jobs, leaving the total employment figure essentially stable at 20,312,600. As a result, the labor force participation rate slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 65.4%, mirroring trends seen in the US and preventing a rise in the unemployment rate.
TL;DR· Canada's unemployment rate held steady at 5.8% in December 2023, slightly outperforming the expected 5.9%.
· A slight increase in unemployed people to 1,245,200 was observed, with a notable rise in unemployment among the older population.
· The economy added a modest 100 jobs, maintaining total employment at around 20.3 million.
· The labor force participation rate dipped to 65.4%, reflecting broader North American labor market trends and contributing to the stable unemployment rate.
Projections for the unemploymentrate suggest a rise to 5.9%, which is an increase from the previous figure of 5.8%.The forthcoming announcement of unemploymentrate data is scheduled for February 9th at 1:30 PM GMT.
