15thFebruary 2024
Thursday
On February 15th, asignificant slate of economic data releases is scheduled, with Australia set todisclose its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, Great Britain toreport its month-over-month GDP, and the United States to announce its CoreRetail Sales month-over-month, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Salesmonth-over-month, and Unemployment Claims.
AUD - EmploymentChange
The Employment Change metric, which reports the variation in the number of individuals employed compared to the previous month, is a critical economic indicator released monthly, approximately 15 days following the conclusion of the month. Given its significance and timely publication, this data exerts a substantial influence on market dynamics. Furthermore, job creation serves as a pivotal leading indicator of consumer spending, the primary driver of overall economic activity.
In a surprising turn of events, Australia's employment figures for December 2023 witnessed a significant downturn, with a loss of 65,100 jobs, bringing the total number to 14.20 million. This development sharply contrasted with market expectations of a 17,600 job increase and reversed the previous month's substantial gain of 72,600 jobs, which was an upward revision. This marked the first decline in employment in the country in three months. The drop was primarily due to a steep decrease in full-time employment, which plummeted by 106,600 to 9.79 million. In contrast, part-time employment saw an increase, adding 41,400 jobs to reach 4.41 million. Despite this setback, the overall employment figures for the year leading up to December reflected a growth of 381,000 jobs, or a 2.8% increase.
TL;DR
Metric
Figure
Change
1 Total Employment
14.20 million
-65,100 jobs
2 Full-time Employment
9.79 million
-106,600 jobs
3 Part-time Employment
4.41 million
+41,400 jobs
4 Monthly Job Expectation
-
Expected increase of 17,600 jobs
5 Previous Month's Gain
-
+72,600 jobs
6 Yearly Job Growth
-
+381,000 jobs (2.8%)
The forecast for EmploymentChange suggests an increase of 15,000 compared to the previous outcome, which showed a decrease of 65,100.
The upcoming AustralianEmploymentChange data announcement is scheduled for Thursday the 15th at12:30 AM GMT.
The last time, AustralianEmployment Change data was announced on the 18th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (AUDNZD M5) below:
AUD - UnemploymentRate
The statistic in focus represents the proportion of the entire labor force that is unemployed and has been actively looking for work in the previous month. Released monthly, usually around 15 days after the end of the month, this figure, though often seen as a lagging indicator, plays a crucial role in assessing the health of the economy due to its direct correlation with consumer spending. It is also commonly known as the "Unemployment Rate.
In December 2023, Australia's unemployment rate stayed at 3.9%, unchanged from the previous month and meeting expectations. The unemployed population slightly fell by 800 to 573,600, with a decrease in individuals looking for full-time work and an uptick in those seeking part-time positions. Employment saw an unexpected decline, falling by 65,100 to 14.2 million, negating the prior month's increase of 72,600. This drop was primarily due to a significant reduction in full-time jobs, although there was a slight rise in part-time roles. The labor force participation rate decreased to 66.8%, down from November's record peak of 67.3% and below the projected 67.1%. The underemployment rate held steady at 6.5%, significantly below the levels seen before the pandemic, while total monthly working hours decreased by 0.5% to 1.926 billion.
TL;DR
Metric
Figure
Change
1 Unemployment Rate
3.9%
Unchanged
2 Unemployed Population
573,600
-800
3 Total Employment
14.2 million
-65,100
4 Full-time Employment
-
Significant reduction
5 Part-time Employment
-
Slight increase
6 Labor Force Participation Rate
66.8%
Decreased from 67.3% to below 67.1% projected
7 Underemployment Rate
6.5%
Steady, below pre-pandemic levels
8 Total Monthly Working Hours
1.926 billion
-0.5%
The forecast for the unemploymentrate suggests a modest increase to 4.0% from the previous figure of 3.9%.
The upcoming Australian UnemploymentRate announcement is scheduled for Thursday the 15th at 12:30AM GMT.
The last time, AustralianUnemployment Rate data was announced on the 18th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (AUDNZD M5) below:
GBP - GDP m/m
The change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy, which is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health, is released monthly, approximately 40 days after the end of the month.
In November 2023, the British economy exhibited a notable expansion of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, a rebound from the 0.3% contraction witnessed in October, and exceeded market forecasts of a 0.2% increase. This expansion represented the most significant growth observed in a span of five months, predominantly propelled by a 0.4% uptick in services output. Within this sector, the information and communication segment experienced a significant surge of 1.5%, attributed mainly to enhancements in computer game publishing and telecommunications. Additionally, the wholesale and retail trade sector recorded a 0.5% increase, while professional, scientific, and technical activities saw a growth of 0.6%. Conversely, a decline of 0.2% was recorded in both the financial and insurance activities and the education sectors. The production output also witnessed a growth of 0.3%, marking its first increase since June 2023, with manufacturing contributing a 0.4% rise. In contrast, the construction sector faced a downturn of 0.2%. Over the three-month period leading up to November, the UK's GDP contracted by 0.2%.
TL;DR
Sector
Growth
Notes
1 Overall GDP Month-over-Month
+0.3%
Exceeded forecasts; rebound from October's -0.3%
2 Services Output
+0.4%
Main driver of growth
3 Information and Communication
+1.5%
Boosted by computer game publishing and telecoms
4 Wholesale and Retail Trade
+0.5%
-
5 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Activities
+0.6%
-
6 Financial and Insurance Activities
-0.2%
Decline
7 Education
-0.2%
Decline
8 Production Output
+0.3%
First increase since June 2023
9 Manufacturing
+0.4%
Contributed to production growth
10 Construction
-0.2%
Decline
11 GDP Over the Last Three Months
-0.2%
Indicative of a contraction
The GDP m/m forecast indicates a 0.0% growth, a decline from the prior rate of 0.3%.
The upcoming BritishGDPm/m release is scheduled for Thursday the 15th at 7:00 AMGMT.
The last time, British GDP m/m was announced on the 12th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (GBPJPY M5) below:
USD - CoreRetail Sales m/m
The Core Retail Sales, which exclude automobile sales, provide a measure of the total value of sales at the retail level. This data is released monthly, approximately 16 days after the end of each month. Automobile sales, though accounting for about 20% of total Retail Sales, are excluded due to their high volatility, which can distort the underlying spending trends. Therefore, the Core Retail Sales data is considered a more accurate indicator of spending patterns. This measure is also known as "Retail Sales Ex Autos."
The increase, excluding automobiles, stood at 0.4%. Notably, motor-vehicle sales had surged by 1.1%, while sales at gas stations had dropped amid falling pump prices. This diverse growth led to a decline in Treasuries and US stocks, as traders had scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the following year. These figures, highlighting an unexpected strength in household spending, contradicted earlier recession forecasts. However, experts had anticipated a slowdown in consumer momentum for 2024 due to persistent inflation, high borrowing costs, and diminishing savings. The 'control group sales', crucial for GDP calculations, showed a 0.8% increase, the most significant since July. It's important to note that these retail statistics mainly reflected merchandise purchases, a small segment of total consumer spending, with comprehensive data on December's personal consumption expenditures expected later. In contrast, a separate report had indicated that manufacturing output experienced minimal growth in December, marking the sector's weakest performance since 2020.
TL;DR
Metric
Change
Details
1 Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles
+0.4%
Indicates solid consumer spending excluding motor-vehicle sales
2 Motor-Vehicle Sales
+1.1%
Significant increase in sales
3 Gas Station Sales
Decline
Decreased due to falling pump prices
4 Market Reaction
-
Decline in Treasuries and US stocks as rate-cut expectations were scaled back
5 Household Spending
-
Showed unexpected strength, contrary to recession forecasts
6 Consumer Momentum (2024 Forecast)
-
Expected slowdown due to inflation, high borrowing costs, and lower savings
7 Control Group Sales
+0.8%
Largest increase since July, important for GDP calculations
8 Retail Statistics
-
Reflect merchandise purchases, a minor part of total consumer spending
9 Manufacturing Output (December)
Minimal Growth
Weakest performance since 2020
The forecast indicates a slight decline from the prior result of 0.4% to 0.2%.
The upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m report is scheduled for release this Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, US Core Retail Sales m/m was announced on the 17th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:
USD - EmpireState Manufacturing Index
The New York Manufacturing Index is a diffusion index derived from a survey of approximately 200 manufacturers in New York State, released monthly around the midpoint of the month in question. A reading above 0.0 signifies improving conditions, while a figure below indicates deterioration. As a leading indicator of economic health, this index reflects businesses' rapid response to market conditions, with shifts in sentiment potentially serving as precursors to broader economic activities such as spending, hiring, and investment. This index, also known as the New York Manufacturing Index, offers insights into the relative level of general business conditions as perceived by the surveyed manufacturers.
In January 2024, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index sharply fell to -43.7, its lowest since May 2020, indicating a significant decline in New York's manufacturing activity. This drop was much steeper than the -14.5 reading in December and far below the -5 forecast. There were substantial decreases in new orders and shipments, along with a continued significant reduction in unfilled orders. Additionally, delivery times shortened, and inventories slightly decreased. There was a modest decline in employment and the average workweek. Input prices rose at a faster pace, while selling price increases remained stable. Although optimism was low, firms anticipated some improvement in the coming six months, and there was a notable increase in the capital spending index, suggesting an uptick in investment plans.
TL;DR
Metric
Figure
Change/Details
1 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
-43.7
Sharpest decline since May 2020
2 Previous Month's Reading
-14.5
-
3 Forecast
-5
Actual figures far below expectations
4 New Orders
Decrease
Substantial decreases noted
5 Shipments
Decrease
Significant decline observed
6 Unfilled Orders
Significant Reduction
Continued notable reduction
7 Delivery Times
Shortened
-
8 Inventories
Slight Decrease
-
9 Employment
Modest Decline
-
10 Average Workweek
Modest Decline
-
11 Input Prices
Faster Pace Increase
-
12 Selling Price Increases
Stable
-
13 Future Outlook
Low Optimism
Some improvement expected in the next six months
14 Capital Spending Index
Notable Increase
Suggests an uptick in investment plans
The forecast for the EmpireState Manufacturing Index suggests an improvement to -19 from the previous figure of -43.7.
The upcoming Empire StateManufacturing Index is scheduled for Thursday the 15th at1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, US Empire StateManufacturing Index data was announced on the 16th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (EURUSD M5) below:
USD - RetailSales m/m
The Advance Retail Sales report quantifies the monthly variation in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level, typically published around 16 days following the conclusion of the month. Serving as both the earliest and most comprehensive assessment of vital consumer spending data, this report is considered the principal indicator of consumer expenditure, which constitutes the majority of overall economic activity.
In December 2023, retail sales in the United States experienced a significant surge, with a month-over-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing expectations of 0.4% and marking the largest uptick in three months. This growth was primarily driven by a notable 1.2% increase in auto sales. Excluding auto sales, retail figures still saw a respectable rise of 0.4%. Other notable gains were observed in nonstore retailers (1.5%), clothing (1.5%), general merchandise stores (1.3%), miscellaneous store retailers (0.7%), building materials and garden equipment (0.4%), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores (0.3%), as well as food and beverage stores (0.2%). However, some sectors experienced declines, including health and personal care (-1.4%), gasoline stations (-1.3%), furniture (-1%), and electronics and appliances (-0.3%), while sales remained unchanged at food services and drinking establishments. When excluding auto sales, gasoline, building materials, and food services, core retail sales saw a robust increase of 0.8%, marking the most significant rise since July. Looking at the entire year of 2023, unadjusted retail sales showed a solid 3.2% growth.
TL;DR
Category
Change
Details
1 Overall Retail Sales
+0.6%
Largest increase in three months
2 Auto Sales
+1.2%
Major contributor to overall growth
3 Retail Sales Excluding Auto
+0.4%
Respectable rise despite excluding auto sales
4 Nonstore Retailers
+1.5%
Significant growth
5 Clothing Stores
+1.5%
Notable increase
6 General Merchandise Stores
+1.3%
Solid growth
7 Miscellaneous Store Retailers
+0.7%
Moderate increase
8 Building Materials and Garden Equipment Stores
+0.4%
Slight rise
9 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores
+0.3%
Minor increase
10 Food and Beverage Stores
+0.2%
Small uptick
11 Health and Personal Care Stores
-1.4%
Decline
12 Gasoline Stations
-1.3%
Decrease due to falling pump prices
13 Furniture Stores
-1%
Reduction
14 Electronics and Appliances Stores
-0.3%
Slight decline
15 Food Services and Drinking Establishments
Unchanged
No growth observed
16 Core Retail Sales (Excluding Autos, Gasoline, Building Materials, and Food Services)
+0.8%
Most significant rise since July
17 Unadjusted Retail Sales Growth (Yearly)
+3.2%
Solid annual growth
The forecast suggests a decreaseto 0.1% from the previous reading of 0.6%.
The upcoming Retail Sales data release is set for Thursday the 15th at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, US Retail Sales data was announced on the 17th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:
USD -Unemployment Claims
The weekly release of initial unemployment insurance claims, typically published on the first Thursday following the prior week, serves as an early indicator of the nation's economic status. Market impact varies, with heightened attention during periods of significant developments or extreme readings. While considered a lagging indicator, the number of individuals filing for unemployment is a crucial signal for assessing overall economic well-being due to its strong correlation with consumer spending. Furthermore, unemployment figures hold substantial importance for policymakers responsible for steering the country's monetary policies. This data is also referred to as "Jobless Claims" or "Initial Claims."
In the week ending February 2nd, US unemployment claims decreased by 9,000, reaching 218,000, slightly surpassing the anticipated 220,000 but remaining significantly higher than the average of the preceding two months. Concurrently, continuing claims dropped by 23,000 to 1,871,000 in the final week of January, reflecting a continuation of the upward trend in unemployment that began in late January, indicating potential challenges in maintaining the labor market's robustness seen in December's strong jobs report. The four-week moving average rose by 3,750 to 212,250, while non-seasonally adjusted claims decreased by 31,192 to 232,727, with notable declines in Oregon, Ohio, and California, and increases in Missouri and Texas.
TL;DR
Metric
Figure
Change/Details
1 Initial Unemployment Claims
218,000
Decreased by 9,000; slightly above forecast of 220,000
2 Continuing Claims
1,871,000
Dropped by 23,000 in the last week of January
3 Four-Week Moving Average
212,250
Increased by 3,750
4 Non-Seasonally Adjusted Claims
232,727
Decreased by 31,192; notable declines in Oregon, Ohio, California
5 Notable State Increases
-
Increases in Missouri and Texas
The projected number of UnemploymentClaims is expected to rise marginally to 220,000, up from the previous figure of 218,000.
The upcoming release of UnemploymentClaims data is scheduled for Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, US UnemploymentClaims data was announced on the 8th of February, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (NZDUSD M5) below:
Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.
