21stMarch 2024Thursday On March21st, the global financial arena...

21^stMarch 2024

Thursday

On March21st, the global financial arena braces for an intense flurry of economic datareleases from major economies. Australia will reveal its employment figures,including the pivotal unemployment rate, while France, Germany, Great Britain,and the US will disclose their Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data,offering crucial insights into economic health. Additionally, Switzerland andGreat Britain will make crucial interest rate announcements, potentiallyimpacting global currencies and investment strategies. Finally, the US willrelease its Unemployment Claims data, completing the mosaic of economicindicators that investors will scrutinize for clues about inflation, growthtrajectories, and potential central bank interventions.

AUD – Employment Change

The monthlyrelease of the change in the number of employed people, typically about 15 daysafter the month ends, is vital economic data with significant market impact dueto its importance and timeliness. Traders closely monitor this data as jobcreation serves as a crucial leading indicator of consumer spending, which inturn drives a majority of overall economic activity.

Australia's jobmarket experienced a minor increase in January 2023, with employment numbersinching up by 500 to reach 14,201,300. This subtle rise fell significantlyshort of the anticipated 30,000 gain, underscoring a cautious start to the yearand a notable deviation from the previous month's revised decrease of 62,800jobs.

The detailedemployment figures revealed a nuanced shift in the job landscape. Full-timepositions saw a modest uptick, adding 11,100 jobs to total 9,797,800. On theflip side, the part-time sector witnessed a contraction, shedding 10,600 jobsto settle at 4,403,500. This dynamic underscores the fluctuating nature ofemployment trends, with full-time roles gaining ground while part-timepositions retract.

On an annualscale, the employment scene has shown resilience and growth, with a totalincrease of 356,700 jobs over the year leading up to January, marking a 2.6 %expansion. This growth highlights the broader, positive trajectory ofAustralia's job market, despite the short-term fluctuations and missedforecasts at the beginning of 2023.

TL;DR

• Total employment in January 2023: 14,201,300 (increase of 500 jobs)
• Full-time employment: 9,797,800 (increase of 11,100 jobs)
• Part-time employment: 4,403,500 (decrease of 10,600 jobs)
• Expected job gain was 30,000; actual gain fell short
• Annual job growth: 356,700 jobs (2.6% increase)

The forecast for Employment Changeis indicating an increase to 30,000 compared to the previous figure of 500.

AUD – Unemployment Rate

The UnemploymentRate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed andactively seeking employment during the previous month, released monthlyapproximately 15 days after the month ends. Traders pay attention to this databecause while it's typically considered a lagging indicator, the number ofunemployed people serves as a crucial signal of overall economic health, giventhe strong correlation between labor-market conditions and consumer spending.

In January, theunemployment rate surged to 4.1 %, marking a notable increase from December's3.9 %. This rise, accompanied by a modest addition of only 500 jobs, asreported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), reflects the firstinstance of unemployment surpassing 4 % in two years. According to the ABS'shead of labour statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, this uptick in unemployment representsa shift from the trend observed since January 2022. Last month saw a notableincrease of 22,000 in the officially unemployed population, while hours workeddeclined by 2.5 %, continuing a trend of decreasing hours observed sincemid-2023. Additionally, there was a slight uptick in underemployment, rising by0.1 percentage point to 6.6 %.

TL;DR

	Indicator	January Figures	Change from December
1	Unemployment Rate	4.1%	+0.2 percentage points
2	Total Employment Change	+500 jobs	Not compared to December
3	Unemployed Population	Increase of 22,000	Not applicable
4	Hours Worked	Declined by 2.5%	Continuing decrease since mid-2023
5	Underemployment Rate	6.6%	+0.1 percentage points

The forecast forthe Unemployment Rate indicates a decrease to 4.0%, down from theprevious rate of 4.1%.

The next releasefor Employment Change and Unemployment Rate is scheduled for Thursdayat 12:30 AM GMT.

EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI

The PurchasingManagers' Index (PMI) is a monthly economic indicator derived from surveys ofmanufacturing sector purchasing managers, reflecting industry conditions.Values above 50 indicate expansion, below 50 contraction. It includes early"Flash" and later "Final" releases, with the"Flash" version typically having more impact since it's first. As aleading economic indicator, PMI provides insights into business sentiment andmarket conditions based on around 750 respondents' views on various businessaspects like employment and production.

In February2024, France's manufacturing sector, as measured by the S&P Global PMI, wasadjusted upwards slightly to 47.1 from a preliminary figure of 46.8, reachingits highest level since March 2023. Despite this, the sector remained in acontraction phase for the 13th month in a row. The decrease in both productionand new orders was notably less severe this month. Moreover, there was a lesspronounced reduction in both employment and purchasing activities. Even thoughthere were fewer delays in delivery times than in January, supply chainchallenges persisted, especially due to disruptions in the Red Sea. Costpressures eased, with input prices dropping due to decreased costs for metals,industrial products, and materials imported from Asia. Facing competitivepressures, manufacturers in France opted to lower their sales prices byproviding discounts. Optimism regarding the production outlook for the coming12 months emerged for the first time since May 2023.

TL;DR

	Indicator	February 2024 Figures	Notable Changes
1	S&P Global PMI	47.1	Adjusted from preliminary 46.8
2	Manufacturing Sector Trend	Contraction	13th consecutive month
3	Production	Decrease	Less severe than previous months
4	New Orders	Decrease	Less severe than previous months
5	Employment	Decrease	Less pronounced reduction
6	Purchasing Activities	Decrease	Less pronounced reduction
7	Delivery Times	Fewer Delays	Improved from January, but challenges persist
8	Supply Chain Challenges	Yes	Continued, particularly due to Red Sea disruptions
9	Cost Pressures	Eased	Due to lower prices for metals, industrial products, Asian imports
10	Sales Prices	Lowered	Manufacturers offered discounts
11	Optimism for Future Production	Yes	First time since May 2023

The forecast forthe French Flash Manufacturing PMI suggests a reading of 47.5, upfrom the previous figure of 47.1.

The last time, French Flash Manufacturing PMI wasannounced on the 22^nd of February, 2024. You may find the marketreaction chart (EURUSD M5) below:

EUR – French Flash Services PMI

The ServicesPurchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a monthly diffusion index derived fromsurveys of purchasing managers in the services sector, indicating industryhealth. Scores above 50 signify expansion, below 50 contraction. It features"Flash" and "Final" releases, with the "Flash"version, introduced in March 2008, generally having greater impact. As aleading economic indicator, it reflects business sentiment and marketconditions from the perspective of around 750 surveyed managers, coveringaspects such as employment, orders, and prices.

In February2024, the HCOB France Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to48.4 from 45.4, signaling a continued but moderating contraction in the servicesector for the ninth consecutive month, a trend softer than previous declines.This improvement was underpinned by the slowest reduction in business activityand new orders in nine months, alongside a revival in international sales forthe first time since May 2023. Employment growth also saw an uptick, hitting afour-month high, which contributed to a decrease in outstanding business. Whileinput costs rose, largely due to higher labor costs, the increase in outputprices was the most minimal since May 2021. Looking forward, optimism withinthe service sector reached a seven-month high, reflecting growing confidence infuture growth prospects.

TL;DR

• Services PMI for February 2024: 48.4, up from 45.4
• Business activity and new orders: slowest reduction in 9 months
• International sales: increased for the first time since May 2023
• Employment growth: reached a four-month high
• Input costs rose, mainly due to higher labor costs
• Output price increase: most minimal since May 2021
• Sector optimism: reached a seven-month high

The expected FlashServices PMI is anticipated to be 48.3, slightly lower than theprevious figure of 48.4.

The upcomingrelease of the French Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI is scheduled for Thursday at8:15 AM GMT.

The last time, French Flash Service PMI wasannounced on the 22^nd of February, 2024. Youmay find the market reaction chart (EURUSDM5) below:

EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI

TheManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a key monthly indicator,derived from surveys of 800 purchasing managers, reflecting the health of themanufacturing sector. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.The index is released in two versions, "Flash" and "Final,"approximately a week apart, with the "Flash" release, introduced inMarch 2008, often having more influence. As a leading indicator, it offersinsights into economic conditions by assessing factors like employment,production, and new orders from the perspective of those directly involved inindustry procurement.

In February2024, the HCOB Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) saw aslight adjustment upwards to 42.5 from an initial estimate of 42.3, indicatinga continued significant downturn in the manufacturing sector. This periodwitnessed the steepest decline in production since October 2023, driven by amore pronounced drop in demand. The acceleration in the reduction of new orderswas attributed to decreased sales both within the country and internationally.Furthermore, there was a reduction in backlog work and the most significantdecrease in employment since August 2020. Persistent decreases were noted inboth pre-production and post-production inventory levels, alongside a markedreduction in purchasing activity due to the ongoing decline in demand. Thisdecline in demand for inputs contributed to a continuous downward trend inpurchasing prices, remaining in a deflationary phase for the thirteenthconsecutive month, even as transport costs rose due to disruptions in Red Seashipping. Additionally, there was a more rapid decrease in average outputprices. The outlook for future production became pessimistic, influenced bydiminishing backlogs, economic uncertainties, and a lack of investment.

TL;DR

	Indicator	February 2024 Figures	Change/Trend
1	Manufacturing PMI	42.5	Slight adjustment from initial 42.3
2	Production Decline	Steepest since October 2023	Driven by more pronounced demand drop
3	New Orders Reduction	Accelerated reduction	Due to decreased domestic and international sales
4	Backlog Work	Reduced	-
5	Employment Decrease	Most significant since August 2020	-
6	Inventory Levels	Decreased	Both pre-production and post-production
7	Purchasing Activity	Marked reduction	Due to decline in demand
8	Purchasing Prices	Continued deflation	13th consecutive month of decrease
9	Output Prices	More rapid decrease	-
10	Future Production Outlook	Pessimistic	Influenced by diminishing backlogs and economic uncertainties

The projected Flash Manufacturing PMIstands at 43.5, showing an improvement from the prior 42.5.

The last time, German Flash Manufacturing PMI was announced on the 22^ndof February, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (EURGBP M5) below:

EUR - German Flash Services PMI

The ServicesPurchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a vital monthly diffusion index fromsurveys of 800 purchasing managers, gauging the services sector's performance.A PMI above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. Theindex is issued in "Flash" and "Final" versions, roughly aweek apart, with the "Flash" release typically having greatersignificance since its inception in March 2008. Serving as a leading economicindicator, the PMI reflects the sector's response to market conditions throughpurchasing managers' assessments of various business aspects such asemployment, orders, and pricing.

In February2024, the HCOB Germany Services PMI saw a minor adjustment upward to 48.3 froman initial estimate of 48.2, up from January's 47.7, continuing a five-monthtrend of contraction. The ongoing solid decline in sector activity wasinfluenced by stringent financial conditions, customer hesitancy, and thebroader economic downturn, with export sales experiencing an additionaldecrease. The service sector faced intensifying inflationary pressures,particularly due to rising wage demands, pushing input costs inflation to apeak not seen in ten months and causing output charges to surge to the highestrate since August 2023. Despite these challenges, service firms reported anuptick in employment, the most significant in eight months, reflecting apositive movement. Future business outlooks brightened to a level not observed sinceApril 2023, fueled by optimism regarding marketing initiatives and anticipatedoverall economic improvements.

TL;DR

• Services PMI for February 2024: 48.3, a slight increase from January's 47.7
• Continued contraction for the fifth month, driven by financial conditions, customer hesitancy, and economic downturn
• Export sales decreased further
• Inflationary pressures intensified, with input cost inflation hitting a 10-month high
• Output charges surged to the highest rate since August 2023
• Employment saw the most significant increase in eight months
• Future business outlook improved to the brightest since April 2023, fueled by marketing initiatives and economic optimism

The projected FlashServices PMI is 49.0, slightly up from the last reported value of 48.3.

The upcoming FlashManufacturing & Services PMIreport is scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 AM GMT.

The lasttime, German Flash Services PMI was announced onthe 22^nd of February, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (EURGBP M5) below:

CHF - SNB Policy Rate

The SwissNational Bank (SNB) targets a specific interest rate for the short-term moneymarket, with adjustments made on a quarterly basis. This rate serves as theSNB's primary tool for monetary policy, although market anticipation oftenleads to its impact being overshadowed by the forward-looking Monetary PolicyAssessment. Traders place significant importance on short-term interest ratesas they are crucial for currency valuation, utilizing other economic indicatorsmainly to forecast future rate movements. The determination of this policy rateis achieved through a consensus among the members of the SNB Governing Board.

In a decisivemove during its December 2023 meeting, the Swiss National Bank held its keypolicy rate steady at 1.75% for the second time in a row, echoing thepredictions of experts and pointing to a slight easing in inflationarypressures. Despite maintaining the rate, the bank expressed concerns over thepersistently high economic uncertainty and pledged to keep a vigilant eye oninflation trends, ready to tweak its monetary stance to safeguard medium-termprice stability. Notably, November saw Switzerland's inflation dip to 1.4%, thelowest since October 2021, but the central bank warned of potential near-termincreases due to factors such as escalating electricity costs, rising rents,and an upturn in VAT. The bank's forecasts suggest a gradual inflation decline,from an average of 2.1% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024, and down to 1.6% by 2025. Onthe economic front, growth prospects appear modest, with 2023's growthprojected at around 1% and 2024's estimates fluctuating between 0.5% and 1%.

TL;DR

	Indicator	December 2023 Meeting Details
1	Policy Rate	Held steady at 1.75%
2	Inflation Concerns	Bank is vigilant; inflation easing slightly but risks remain
3	Inflation Rate (November)	Dipped to 1.4%, the lowest since October 2021
4	Inflation Forecast	2023: 2.1% average; 2024: 1.9%; 2025: 1.6%
5	Economic Growth Prospects	2023: Around 1%; 2024: Between 0.5% and 1%
6	Factors Influencing Inflation	Rising electricity costs, rents, and VAT upturn

Predictions suggest that the SNB PolicyRate will remain steady at the previous level of 1.75%.

The upcoming SNB Policy Rateannouncement is set for Thursday at 8:30 AM GMT.

CHF – SNB Press Conference

The conference,featuring the SNB Chairman and Governing Board members, is a key event wheremore hawkish outcomes than anticipated are beneficial for the currency.Scheduled to coincide with the rate announcements in June and December, thisapproximately one-hour conference comprises two segments: an initial reading ofprepared statements followed by a press Q&A session. The latter oftenyields unscripted responses, which can lead to significant market fluctuations.Traders closely monitor this conference as it serves as one of the primarychannels through which the SNB Governing Board communicates its monetary policystance and economic outlook to investors.

At the SwissNational Bank's press conference on December 14, 2023, Chairman Thomas Jordanannounced the decision to maintain the SNB policy rate at 1.75%, citing aslight decrease in inflationary pressures. The bank revised its inflationforecasts downward, anticipating rates within the price stability range through2025. While discussing a subdued global economic outlook and the mixedperformance of Switzerland's economy, the SNB emphasized its readiness toadjust monetary policy as needed. The conference also addressed the importanceof maintaining cash as a payment option amidst declining usage and introducedthe new SIC5 payment system, enabling instant electronic transactions. Thissystem is seen as a significant step towards modernizing Switzerland's paymentsinfrastructure, offering immediate transaction capabilities and benefits forliquidity management.

TL;DR

• SNB policy rate remains at 1.75% as of December 14, 2023
• Inflation forecasts revised down, expected within price stability range through 2025
• SNB prepared to adjust monetary policy in response to economic changes
• Emphasis on maintaining cash as a viable payment option
• Introduction of SIC5 payment system for instant electronic transactions, enhancing Switzerland's payment infrastructure

The SNB Press Conference isscheduled for Thursday at 8:30 AM GMT.

GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers'Index (PMI) is a critical diffusion index, collected from around 650 purchasingmanagers' surveys, that evaluates the manufacturing sector's state each month.Scores above 50 denote expansion, while those below 50 suggest contraction. Theindex is released in two editions, "Flash" and "Final,"with the "Flash" version, first reported in November 2019, generallyexerting more influence due to its earlier release. As a leading economicindicator, the PMI quickly reflects changes in market conditions throughdetailed insights from purchasing managers on various business aspects likeemployment, production, and new orders.

In February 2024, the S&P Global UKManufacturing PMI climbed to 47.5, marking a ten-month peak, slightly above theinitial estimate of 47.1. However, this figure still reflects a downturn forthe 19th straight month, primarily attributed to the ongoing crisis in the RedSea that has led to interruptions in production and delays in deliveries.Manufacturers are struggling to secure alternative sources, often resorting tomore expensive options from nearer regions. The drop in demand is clear, withthe fastest decrease in new orders since October. Most components of the PMI,like new orders, production, employment, and inventory levels, indicated acontraction. The only area that contributed positively was the extendeddelivery times from suppliers, the most significant since July 2022, which,rather than signalling a rise in demand, points to the prevailing supply chaindifficulties.

TL;DR

• UK Manufacturing PMI in February 2024: 47.5, a ten-month high but still indicating contraction
• Downturn ongoing for 19 months, exacerbated by Red Sea crisis affecting production and deliveries
• Manufacturers facing challenges in sourcing alternatives, often at higher costs
• New orders declined at the fastest rate since October
• Contraction observed in new orders, production, employment, and inventory levels
• Extended supplier delivery times, the most significant since July 2022, reflect supply chain issues rather than increased demand

The forecast forthe Flash Manufacturing PMI suggests a reading of 47.1, down fromthe previous figure of 47.5.

The last time, British Flash ManufacturingPMI was announced on the 22^nd of February, 2024. You may findthe market reaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:

GBP - Flash Services PMI

The ServicesPurchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a monthly diffusion index derived from thesurveys of approximately 650 purchasing managers, indicating the servicessector's health. A PMI above 50 suggests expansion, below 50 contraction. Theindex is published in "Flash" and "Final" versions, withthe "Flash" release, introduced in November 2019, typically havingmore impact due to its timeliness. As a leading indicator, the PMI providesearly insights into economic conditions by capturing purchasing managers'perspectives on key business variables such as employment, order volumes, andpricing.

In February2024, the S&P Global UK Services PMI underwent a downward revision to 53.8,a slight decline from both the preliminary estimate of 54.3 and the figurereported in January. Despite this adjustment, the UK's service sectorexperienced a consistent growth in business activities, attributed to anincrease in new orders and a slight uptick in employment levels. The outputexpansion, although marginally less robust than January's eight-month peak,remained significant. The period saw a notable rise in input costs, hitting afive-month high, predominantly driven by escalated wage demands and heightenedshipping expenses. In response to diminishing profit margins, service providersimplemented price hikes at a rate surpassed only by that of December in thepast seven months. Moreover, the sector's optimism regarding future growthsurged to levels not observed since February 2022, underscoring a positiveoutlook amidst evolving economic challenges.

TL;DR

• UK Services PMI for February 2024 revised to 53.8, slightly down from preliminary 54.3 and January's figure
• Continued growth in business activities due to increased new orders and employment levels
• Output expansion marginally less robust than January's eight-month high
• Input costs rose to a five-month high, driven by higher wage demands and shipping expenses
• Service providers increased prices, with the rate of hikes near the seven-month high seen in December
• Sector optimism about future growth reached the highest level since February 2022

The FlashServices PMI is forecasted to reach 54.2, showing a slight increasefrom the previous reading of 53.8.

The Flash Manufacturing& Services PMI data is scheduled for release on Thursday at 9:30 AM GMT.

The last time, British Flash Services PMI wasannounced on the 22^nd of February, 2024. You may find the marketreaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:

GBP - Official Bank Rate

The Bank ofEngland's interest rate, set for overnight lending to financial institutions,is determined on a monthly schedule. Market anticipation often factors in therate decision, leading to greater emphasis on the Monetary Policy Summary,which offers insights into future policy directions. Traders prioritizeshort-term interest rates as they are crucial in assessing currency value,using other indicators mainly to forecast potential rate adjustments. TheMonetary Policy Committee (MPC) members cast their votes on the rate setting,with the detailed voting record made available in the MPC Meeting Minutes twoweeks post-decision.

In February2024, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep theBank Rate steady at 5.25%, following a vote with a majority of 6-3. Thisdecision was based on the goal of achieving the 2% inflation target andsupporting sustainable growth and employment. The MPC's projections, outlinedin the February Monetary Policy Report, anticipated a gradual decrease in theBank Rate to around 3.25% by the end of the forecast period, a significantreduction from previous expectations. Despite global GDP growth remainingsubdued with slight improvements in the US, inflationary pressures started toease, particularly in the euro area and the US, influenced by droppingwholesale energy prices and ongoing risks from geopolitical tensions anddisruptions in the Red Sea. The UK's GDP growth is expected to recovergradually, influenced by diminished impacts from past Bank Rate increases, withbusiness surveys hinting at a near-term positive outlook. Although the labormarket began to relax, it remained historically tight, with unemploymentprojected to rise slightly. December 2023 saw a drop in twelve-month CPIinflation to 4.0%, with expectations of a temporary return to the 2% target inQ2 of 2024, followed by a slight increase. The MPC anticipated inflation tostay above the target for most of the forecast period, driven by persistentdomestic inflationary pressures despite increasing economic slack. TheCommittee noted balanced risks to inflation, with no significant differencebetween its modal and mean projections for the coming years. Maintaining theBank Rate at 5.25% was seen as necessary to ensure a sustainable return to the2% inflation target, with the MPC ready to adjust policy in response toeconomic data and persistent inflationary pressures.

TL;DR

	Indicator	Details
1	Bank Rate Decision	Held steady at 5.25%
2	Vote Split	6-3 in favor of holding the rate
3	Inflation Target	2%
4	Bank Rate Forecast	Anticipated to decrease to around 3.25% by the end of the forecast period
5	Global GDP Growth	Subdued, with slight improvements in the US
6	Inflationary Pressures	Easing, especially in the euro area and the US, due to lower wholesale energy prices and geopolitical risks
7	UK GDP Growth	Expected to recover gradually, influenced by reduced impacts from past Bank Rate increases
8	Labor Market	Beginning to relax but remains tight, with a slight projected increase in unemployment
9	CPI Inflation	Dropped to 4.0% in December 2023, expected to temporarily hit 2% target in Q2 2024, then slightly rise
10	Inflation Outlook	Projected to stay above the 2% target for most of the forecast period, due to domestic pressures and economic slack
11	Committee's Stance	Ready to adjust the Bank Rate based on economic data and inflationary pressures

The anticipated decision on the InterestRate suggests a steady rate of 5.25%, mirroring the previous result.

The upcoming decision on the InterestRate is set for Thursday at 12:00 PM GMT.

USD - Unemployment Claims

The InitialJobless Claims, released weekly on the first Thursday after the week ends,signify the earliest economic data for the nation. Market impact varies butgarners more attention during significant developments or extreme readings.Despite being considered a lagging indicator, the number of new unemploymentinsurance filings is vital for assessing overall economic well-being, as itstrongly relates to consumer spending and influences monetary policy decisions.It is also known as Jobless Claims.

For the weekending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemploymentclaims in the United States fell slightly to 209,000, marking a decrease of1,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The revision also adjusted thecount for the week prior from an initially reported 217,000 down to 210,000.Additionally, the four-week moving average, a more stable measure ofunemployment claims, dipped to 208,000, reflecting a modest decline of 500 fromthe last week's revised average. These adjustments provide a clearer picture ofthe labor market's current state, emphasizing a slight but positive shift in unemploymenttrends.

TL;DR

	Indicator	Figure for Week Ending March 9	Change from Previous Week
1	Initial Unemployment Claims	209,000	Decrease of 1,000
2	Previous Week's Revised Figure	210,000	Initially reported as 217,000
3	Four-Week Moving Average	208,000	Decrease of 500

The projectednumber of Unemployment Claims is forecasted to be 216,000,marking an increase from the previous figure of 209,000.

The upcoming UnemploymentClaims report is set for Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

The last time,the US Unemployment Claims reportwas announced on the 14^th of March, 2024. You may find the marketreaction chart (US100 M5) below:

USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI

This index,derived from a monthly survey of about 800 purchasing managers in themanufacturing sector, gauges industry health and economic outlook. Conductedaround the third week of each month, it yields two versions: the Flash and theFinal report, with the Flash, initiated in May 2012, often having more impactdue to its promptness. A score above 50 indicates industry growth, while below50 suggests contraction. This index is a crucial leading economic indicator aspurchasing managers' responses provide timely insights into businessconditions, including employment, production, orders, prices, deliveries, andinventories, reflecting their rapid adaptation to market changes.

The health ofthe US manufacturing sector improved in February 2024, exceeding expectations.The S&P Global PMI index rose to a revised 52.2, marking the strongestexpansion since July 2022. Production surged at its fastest pace in nearly twoyears, fueled by a significant rise in new orders and exports. Hiring in thesector also picked up, and raw material purchases rebounded for the first timein seven months. While businesses continued raising prices at a notable clip,their input costs witnessed some welcome relief. However, a slight dip inbusiness confidence suggests a cautious outlook for the near future.

TL;DR

	Indicator	February 2024 Figures	Notable Trends/Comments
1	S&P Global PMI Index	52.2 (revised)	Strongest expansion since July 2022
2	Production	Not specified	Fastest pace in nearly 2 years, driven by new orders and exports
3	Hiring	Picked up	-
4	Raw Material Purchases	Rebounded	First time in 7 months
5	Price Increases	Continued	Notable rate, despite input cost relief
6	Business Confidence	Slight dip	Suggests cautious outlook

The forecast for Flash Manufacturing PMIstands at 52.0, a slight decrease from the previous 52.2.

USD – Flash Services PMI

This indexmeasures the economic health of the service sector through a diffusion indexderived from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers, conductedmonthly around the third week. A score above 50 signals expansion, while below50 indicates contraction. The report is issued in two versions, Flash andFinal, with the Flash version, first introduced in November 2013, generallyhaving more impact due to its early release. Serving as a leading economicindicator, the index reflects the quick response of businesses to marketconditions, with purchasing managers providing vital, up-to-date insights intovarious business conditions such as employment, production, new orders, prices,deliveries, and inventories.

The February2024 S&P Global US Services PMI indicated sustained growth in the sector,albeit with signs of moderation. The revised reading of 52.3 confirmedcontinued expansion, though at a slightly slower pace compared to January.While business activity remained in positive territory for the thirteenth monthstraight, the influx of new business slowed, with a decline in export orders.Backlogs of work eased as companies increased hiring, alleviating capacitypressures. The inflationary environment witnessed some improvement, with inputcost growth reaching its lowest level since October 2020. Businesses respondedby raising selling prices moderately, yet the increase remained subduedcompared to the pre-2020 period. However, business confidence dipped to itslowest point since November 2023, reflecting concerns about weakening customerpurchasing power and ongoing cost-cutting measures.

TL;DR

	Indicator	February 2024 Figures	Notable Trends/Comments
1	S&P Global Services PMI	52.3 (revised)	Expansion continues, though at a slightly slower pace
2	Business Activity	Positive for 13 months	Ongoing expansion but moderated
3	New Business	Slowed down	Including a decline in export orders
4	Backlogs of Work	Eased	Due to increased hiring, reducing capacity pressures
5	Input Cost Growth	Lowest since October 2020	Inflationary environment improving
6	Selling Prices	Moderate increase	More subdued than in pre-2020 periods
7	Business Confidence	Lowest since November 2023	Concerns about customer purchasing power and cost-cutting

The anticipated FlashServices PMI is expected to be 52.2, down from the previous outcomeof 52.3.

The upcoming FlashManufacturing & Services PMIis scheduled for release this Thursday at 1:45 PM GMT.

The last time, US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI was announced on the 22^ndof February, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (AUDUSD M5) below: