15thApril 2024
Monday
Today, the financial marketsare bracing for high-impact data releases from the United States, with thespotlight on the announcement of Core Retail Sales month-over-month, the EmpireState Manufacturing Index, and Retail Sales month-over-month. These keyindicators are expected to provide valuable insights into the health of the USeconomy, consumer spending trends, and the manufacturing sector's performance,potentially influencing market movements and economic forecasts.
USD - CoreRetail Sales m/m
The Core Retail Sales month-over-month metric assesses the variation in the total retail sales value, excluding automobile transactions. This indicator, published approximately 16 days post-month-end, provides a more reliable measure of spending trends by omitting the highly volatile automobile sales, which represent around 20% of total Retail Sales.
In a recent update, it has been reported that retail sales in the United States, excluding motor vehicles and parts, experienced a modest uptick of 0.3% in February 2024 on a month-over-month basis. This positive shift follows a revised decrease of 0.8% in the previous month, and slightly missed the market's expectations of a 0.5% rise. Despite this, the year-over-year figures are more encouraging, with sales in this category marking a 1.5% increase. The data suggests a cautious yet steady recovery in consumer spending, excluding the automotive sector, indicating nuanced consumer behavior in the broader economic landscape.
TL;DR
U.S. retail sales excluding vehicles rose 0.3% in February 2024.
Sales decline revised to 0.8% for January 2024.
February's increase missed market expectations of a 0.5% rise.
Year-over-year sales grew by 1.5%.
Core Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.4% on a monthly basis, compared to the previous rate of 0.3%.
The next Core Retail Sales m/m is scheduled for release on Monday at 12:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Core Retail Sales m/m was announced on the14th of March, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (US100M5) below:
USD - RetailSales m/m
The Retail Sales month-over-month report, issued approximately 16 days following the conclusion of each month, quantifies the variation in total retail sales value, offering the most immediate and comprehensive insight into consumer spending patterns. This metric is pivotal for traders as it serves as the principal indicator of consumer expenditure, which constitutes the bulk of total economic activity.
Retail spending in the United States saw a notable rebound last month, with consumers opening their wallets wider, particularly for gasoline. The Commerce Department revealed on Thursday that retail sales, encompassing purchases at brick-and-mortar stores, online shopping, and dining out, climbed 0.6% in February. This rise comes as a recovery from the 1.1% drop observed in January, which was revised from initial estimates. Despite this positive turn, the increase fell just short of what economists had anticipated.
The downturn in January's retail sales was largely blamed on the frigid weather conditions that led many consumers to stay indoors. Nonetheless, the US economy continues to demonstrate resilience, buoyed by steady job creation and robust wage growth, which has kept consumer spending buoyant. In fact, retail spending has risen in seven out of the last ten months, up to February, signaling a sustained appetite for consumption among Americans.
TL;DR
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February, recovering from a 1.1% drop in January.
The increase was below economist expectations.
January's decline was attributed to severe cold weather.
Consumer spending remains strong, supported by steady job creation and robust wage growth.
Retail spending has increased in seven of the last ten months.
The forecast for Retail Salesm/m stands at 0.3%, reflecting a decrease from the previous figure of 0.6%.
The next Retail Sales m/m is set to be released on Monday at 12:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Retail Sales m/m was announced on the 17th of January, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:
USD - EmpireState Manufacturing Index
The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a diffusion index derived from a survey of approximately 200 manufacturers in New York State, reflecting the level of business conditions. Released monthly around the mid-point, a reading above 0.0 signifies improving conditions, while below 0.0 suggests deterioration. This index is closely watched by traders as a leading indicator of economic health, offering early insights into future business activities such as spending, hiring, and investment, based on the rapid response of businesses to market conditions.
In a recent report, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey highlighted a downturn in New York State's manufacturing sector for March 2024. The general business conditions index plummeted by nineteen points to a concerning -20.9, signaling a contraction in the industry. The slump was largely driven by a dip in demand, with significant drops in new orders and shipments, and a continued decrease in unfilled orders. The survey also pointed to a weakening labor market, noting declines in both employment levels and hours worked. While there was a slight ease in the rise of input costs, prices charged by manufacturers held steady. Despite firms holding onto a glimmer of hope for a turnaround in the next six months, the overall sentiment remained cautiously optimistic.
TL;DR
Category
March 2024 Data
Comments
1 General Business Conditions Index
-20.9
Indicates industry contraction
2 New Orders
Significant drop
Reflects decreased demand
3 Shipments
Significant drop
Aligns with decrease in new orders
4 Unfilled Orders
Continued decrease
Further decline in backlog
5 Employment
Decline
Weakening labor market
6 Hours Worked
Decline
Reduced working hours
7 Input Costs
Slight ease in rise
Mild relief in cost pressures
8 Prices Charged
Steady
No change despite input cost easing
9 Six-Month Outlook
Cautiously optimistic
Hope for turnaround despite negativity
The projected Empire StateManufacturing Index is -9, showing an improvement from the previous figure of -20.9.
The next Empire State Manufacturing Index is set to be released on Monday at 12:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Empire State Manufacturing Index data was announced on the 15th of March, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:
