Started as a dribble at 2.2c around 10/15 mins after open.
Then, with the help of some bot trades continued the friday sell momentum into the 2.1/2.0c buys. Obvious that the buyer/s didnt want to bolster the buy side to make it look like the accumulator was too desperate so the buy side was slowly whittled away right down into 2.0c.
At 11.00pm the buy/sell ratio still pretty healthy at 2 to 1, well healthy for TON anyway.
Chart-wise, not my forte but Ive learnt a bit from Seagull over the last year or so in another stock, in the last 2 weeks the sp has been solidly supported at 2c for 6 days of the fortnight.
I dont know about U guys but it fairly obvious to me that someone has their ambitions set at 2c.
Ill go on a bit of basic company valuation analysis here. And feel free to correct me here as this is pretty subjective stuff.
The project valuation of Ancuabe will run at around 100M.
Current MC value is at 31.2 M at 2.0c
Ancuabes 100M valuation would give us:
100M/1.56B shares. converted to cps gives
10B cents for 100M Ancuabe value/ 1.5B shares
or 6.6cents/share
So fair value for Ancuabe would run at 6 to 7c per share depending on the bullishness for natural graphite
which is slowly gaining momentum/confidence with graphite prices starting to move north in the last 3 years, altho weakening a bit in the last couple of months.
A hiatus coming into the 2025 deficit perhaps.
" But Fastmarkets research expects stronger demand and that restocking activity will propel prices higher in the second half of the year.
“With demand for graphite from the battery sector forecast to rise by 37% year-on-year in 2023, we expect the current pricing lull to prove temporary.
We see demand growth outpacing supply in the second half of 2023,” Bennett said.
And the market is expected to tighten further in 2024, with continuing growth in demand exceeding the likely increases in supply.
“Deficit conditions will worsen in 2024,”
Bennett said, “with demand for graphite from the battery sector forecast to rise by a further 29%, while delays to new natural graphite projects persist, propelling prices higher through 2024.”
But we cant align ourselves with the anode graphite market as one recent poster mentioned of our basket price only 20% or so of Ancuabes revenue will be defined by anode quality graphite.
However as the natural graphite price index shows there is cause for some positivity with a good rise in the last 3 years as mentioned above.
So on this basis, and JUST Ancuabe moving forward, most broker analysts might put around 5-6c on TON.
That pretty closely aligns with whats happening with the buying support at 2c.
Forgive me whoever is buying at 2/2.2c
This imho is why we r seeing the obvious bot manipulation of the sp atm.
One can draw ones own conclusions on this but its pretty damned obvious imo.
Its also cause for bullishnes on the TON sp becos successfull accumulation at this price by any Ancuabe financing insto means less to no dilution, depending on how many shares they can accumulate at 2 then sell into the Ancuabe financing annmnt as well as other project forward moving annmnts that will show the market Ancuabe iis to go ahead. For heavens sake its not hard given there r around 1.5B shares on issue !!!
Obvious disclaimer here. This is as long as TON/Shandong can find the balance of the 100M required for Ancuabe.
Perhaps they MIGHT need to pull the trigger on an annmnt stating the reinstatement of NH to the TON project fold IF Yulong Mining will relinquish the NH license to TON once again.
They may not need this however and will keep their NH powder dry ftm depending on the talents of the financing brokers traders and the general markets reaction to any postive Ancuabe news as well as Cobra Plains resource expansion news.
Its really exceptionally quite smart by whoever is doing this atm.
So IF this plays out and ther is no more dilution on financing the above TON valuation on Ancuabe should hold.
THATS NOT TO SAY the sp will hold to hhat 6/7c on any successfu reinstatement of NH.
I cant see this in the short term however until the graphite market really does start to gain momentum and thats as long as the graphite deficit predictions hold.
Everything is pointing in that direction tho.
So again, good luck to all and please comment to the positive or negative on my assessment of the situation as it stands atm.
Im willing to b corrected on my bullish assessment as above.
So that post morphed a bit, sorry about that guys.
Surely Ur geting used to my ong winded posts by now.
Now to relax and do a few odd jobs and thensit down and watch that beautiful piece of the NSW country known as Mt Panorama.
TON Price at posting:
2.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
