Day Trading After-Market Lounge June 29th, page-49

  1. 13,097 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 236
    The problem is, Sam, you can almost set your watch to the panic that comes out when the market has a big down day or the media get hold of a story. Saw it happen for a year or more after the GFC as the market put in a massive rally, saw it happen with PIGS, Fukashima, Ukraine and now Greece (I've probably missed a few other dips in there). Markets simply muddle through these things. Always have. Sure, if you think Greece and the theorised scenarios that arise out of a Grexit are on par with the GFC, Dot Com bubble, 87 crash, 1929, then by all means, sit it out. If you're right, it'll be an amazingly insightful and profitable call.

    I just accept the fact that i'm never going to be able to pick the bottom with these things. I tend to look at the fact that stock indexes are far from trading on inflated earnings multiples and we have both the Chinese and Australian reserve banks (the two most relevant players to Aussie stocks) with plenty of room to move with monetary and prudential policy still, if required. The US can also defer the phasing-out of their bond buying program, as required, and i have no doubt that EU will do whatever it takes to keep remaining members unified. Far from setting a positive example for other debt-ridden EU members, a Greek exit would cause a sharp decline in social and financial conditions for the Greeks for some time. Watch crime escalate if there's a Grexit! I can't imagine Portugal, Spain et.al being inspired by Greece's plight in the next several years. Even if they were thinking about it, if anything they'll sit back for some time and observe how Greece plays-out as a nation.

    I've only been investing for around 15 years, so certainly haven't seen it all but one constant I've noticed is that whatever the type of market or set of conditions or media spin, good companies usually continue being good companies, keep making profits, paying you a reliable dividend etc. If the market decides to sell these companies down 25-50% because a bunch of banks in the US sell each other some worthless derivatives over cheap houses, or because a few banks are going to take a haircut on Greek debt and the Euro is going to be volatile... I'm pretty happy (financially - not socially, if people are suffering) because i know those good stocks are going to be even better value, pay a much higher yield and be worth a lot more when the "leaders" of the world orchestrate the next financial fix.
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.