Morning traders. Thanks Mitta for opening the lounge last night. Today's trading session wraps up at 2.10pm EST (including closing auction), so we'll let Beany's "Morning" thread run through to the close of trade. I'm heading off for a beach break later this morning and will miss Friday's session. Back here on Monday. Any volunteers to open the "Pre-market" and "Afternoon" threads, please? Otherwise the keys will be under the mat. Many thanks to everyone who swung by this year, whether it was to read, share your trading ideas, tell everyone else they're doing it wrong, have a laugh or troll. Happy New Year to all.
Market wrap:
A rebound in key commodities looks likely to cushion the Australian share market from a retreat on Wall Street following mildly disappointing US consumer confidence data and falls on European markets.
The March SPI 200 futures contract eased one point or less than 0.1% to 5381 as iron ore surged back above US$70 a tonne, and a decline in the US dollar helped oil and metals.
The S&P 500 broke a run of seven straight advances overnight, falling 11 points or 0.51% after consumer confidence improved less than economists expected this month and the prospect of a destabilising Greek election cast a pall over European trade. The Dow dropped 55 points or 0.31% and the Nasdaq 30 points or 0.62%.
“We could be seeing a little bit of profit-taking coming into year-end,” David Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Global Asset Management in the US, told Bloomberg. “Volume will tend to be very light through year-end, and we anticipate it being quiet.”
The Conference Board US consumer confidence index rose to 92.6 this month from 91 in November, less than the median forecast of 93.8-93.9 among economists polled by MarketWatch and Bloomberg. House prices saw their largest seasonally-adjusted increase in seven months during October, increasing by 0.8%. However, annual price growth slowed to the lowest level in two years.
European markets turned firmly lower as confirmation that Greeks will go to the polls for a general election on January 25 resurrected fears about a break-up of the European Union. The far-left Syriza party, which is leading in the polls, opposes austerity measures imposed by the nation's lenders and has vowed to exit the current bailout program. The Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.94% as Germany's DAX gave up 1.22%, France's CAC 1.67% and Britain's FTSE 1.3%.
"We have a good three weeks of [Greek election] uncertainty ahead of us. Headline risk will be the dominant theme and any changes in poll numbers are likely to drive price action,” Stan Shamu, market strategist at IG, told MarketWatch.
Iron ore staged its strongest rally in several weeks yesterday, with the spot price for import to China surging $3.30 or 4.6% to US$71.20 a dry tonne. Rio Tinto rallied 1.62% in US trade overnight, but BHP surrendered early gains to close 0.67% lower.
Oil bounced off a five-year low to break a run of three straight losses ahead of today's weekly US supply update. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in February gained 51 cents or 1% to settle at US$54.12 a barrel but had lately subsided to US$53.67.
US gold stocks continued their current trend of sharp jags in alternate directions, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs index jumping 4.42% as gold for February delivery rose $18.50 or 1.6% to settle at US$1,200.40 an ounce.
Short-covering helped copped recover from Monday's four-and-a-half-year low ahead of today's Chinese factory update. In London, copper advanced 0.56%, lead 3%, nickel 0.17%, tin 0.62% and zinc 2.05%. Aluminium eased 0.11%. US copper for March delivery was recently up 1% or more than three cents at US$2.85 a pound.
The dollar was this morning up more than half a cent, buying 81.82 US cents.
TRADING THEMES TODAY
FINAL TWIST?: A welcome jump yesterday in the price of the nation's most important export - iron ore - offers hope that the trading year may end on a positive note today at 2.10pm EST. However, our biggest trading partner will have the last word on how the year finishes, when HSBC updates its Chinese factory index for December at 12.45pm. Any change in either direction from the preliminary reading of 49.5 will have an impact. Wall Street took an overdue breather overnight from record closes. If world markets need an excuse to work off some of their seasonal excesses, the Greek election on January 25 offers an easy justification. The instos seem to be having fun with gold just now, using the low seasonal liquidity to throw it around in both directions, burning longs and shorts alternately. It's interesting to watch but trend traders must be tearing their hair out.
ECONOMIC NEWS: Monthly private-sector credit figures are due at 11.30am EST, but today's intraday highlight is the 12.45pm release of HSBC's final Chinese manufacturing PMI for December. The US winds up the year tonight with weekly jobless claims, the Chicago PMI, pending home sales and crude oil inventories.
Good luck to all. I'm off to the beach. See you in 2015.
