A month ago I said that the Turks would enter Syria on the Western side of the Euphrates and guess what ....
My current guess is that they will actually leave the Kurds well enough alone on this front.
NB: I missed on the timing because the Kurds did not respond previously to Turkey allowing one of the ISIS VBIED vehicles to cross their border gate into Kobane. Other ISIS VBIEDs and vehicles apparently passed YPG checkpoints with the occupants disguised as YPG fighters.
We know that elements of the Turkish Military and the exeutive of the ruling AK Party in Turkey are at loggerheads over this. Essentially the Military won't move on the Government's crazy say so unless the coalition partners agreed. By illiciting something of a response by the PKK to the Surac massacre (of PKK and Communist oriented students) side elements within the Turkish Government may now have what they want.
What of the US? US intelligence is well aware of fragmented collaboration between Turkish security and ISIS (be this by commission or planned ommission). The US is not happy but has allowed the criticism of Turkey to come from Germany rather than from thier own mouth pieces. The US and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq are also very unhappy about an apparent deal between the PKK and Iran ........ and so have allowed Turkey to bomb and shell PKK positions both in the Qandil Mountains and in Northen Syria.
The Erdogan agenda is clearly to prevent the Kurds from joining all of their cantons (communes) along the entire border of Northern Syria. But for the military to go along with it other partners (including possibly the US and other NATO allies) may be required. We will see. Strategically the US is happier working with the Turkish armed forces than it is with the Islamist Turkish Government ....... so my guess is that they will have a presence in this so called buffer zone.
Where could this lead? Iran secures the Alawite areas with a now proxy Assad Government. With Russian and Chinese support I don't believe that would change and I don't believe that Iran can see any benefit in controlling the radical Sunni centre of the country. Who would? I suspect this is what the Iranian Foreign Minister is currently telling the Saudi and Gulf State foreign ministers on something of a very odd good will mission. Iran may try to tell the PKK to behave for the moment but the PKK is not an organisation that sees itself as anyones proxy.
There would now be significant friction between the PKK and their Syrian affiliate the PYD in my opinion. This will work to ISIS' andvantage in the short to medium term .... but in essence all the Kurds are seeking is land to the North of the M4 highway and into the town of Sarin.
South of the M4 highway is a potential conflict zone leading to Raqqa .... the ISIS capital. Maybe Turkey intends to facilitate a Rebel/FSA pushback of ISIS into Raqqa ....... or to sort something else out. Jabat al Nusra could be a player here as the Saudis desperately try to untie it from al Qaeda and rebadge it as something different ..... perhaps a non-ISIS but none the less radical Islamist fighting force. Who knows? And what of the personal linkages between members of the Turkish security forces and ISIS white anting anything but a jointly contrived process? Again who knows??
