Craw, I would look at DOC as another announcement - a big one,...

Craw,
I would look at DOC as another announcement - a big one, sure but just an announcement - and would therefore expect the usual dynamic where SP increases in anticipation of the announcement.  And how much it rises has a lot to do with the quality and size of the emerging project relative to our baseline SP!  After the announcement there should be further build as a result of contingent factors due to the special nature of this kind of announcement such as:
- Access to debt finance
- Access to equity investors who have policies on 'reserve grade only'
- Initial steps in the development process and emergence of detailed plans and valuations.
In my view, despite the tight hole, there is already plenty enough out there to anticipate commerciality. And being bullish on oil price for the next few years, I see no case in waiting for a rubber stamp. If this was not my mentality I wouldn't bother analyzing the stock.
The same is true of M&A analysts. The are paid to exercise something like 'informed imagination'.  There is no reason for them to wait for formalities either, and there are big prizes for being right and early.
My thought FWIW