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$6.56 lynas rare earths limited

"I have a suggestion for you. The next time I say something you...

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Gustavo100

989 Posts.

11/03/17

08:12

Post #: 23268209
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Originally posted by ContraryJ ↑

I welcome a thought out opposing view. You just repeat the same old story which was really just a bad opinion had nothing to do with performance. I was wrong on BK and admitted it hours after new deal came out. Lets look at H1 ‘17 report and see how wrong on other issues. Page 12 “Recognition of convertible note based on new terms” $69.804 Million. They did not even have 15% of that when deal was done in free cash. It would have taken an instantaneous REE price increases of over 100% mid September to raise cash needed. Yes my conclusion was wrong but it was an opinion about future not fact. My facts if you go back and read were actual less than the $69M. No one ever posted one post saying facts were wrong with supporting data. (Aushead did say Jare would bail them out which was half true, AL gave up allot) You and a few others love to point out how wrong I was on my prediction which I never said was fact. Are you incapable of understanding difference between two. Next you are saying they had 5 M cash Q2 you will have to help me out. End of Q2 they had 8.5 Million of free cash 38.5 M of restricted cash. Total cash went up 0.88M in Q2, Where did you get 5M? Now cash went down 5.66 M Q1 so for half year cash went down just under - 5 M, but you said plus? I will readily admit I predicted more than this by 2 M. A PREDICTIONS. But again lets look at H1 report. Page 10. They had a loss of 12.98 M for the first half. How can someone that had a decrease of less than 5M in cash have a loss of nearly 13M? I will use 5M and 13M from now on. First inventory. Page 11 it went down 10.1 M. Now this is very good for a cash strapped company to do. It is finite and will soon diminish. Payables went up by 16.6 Million to $49.37. You figure out how far behind on their bills they are. Now these two alone account for over 26.7 M in loses. Balancing this out is receivables. Which went up about 8 Million. Bringing loss down to 18 M These are the big ones. I am sure you can find the rest. Stock holders’ equity went up I predicted down. IT went from 71.2M up to 82.7. Nice gain. Keeping total equity above $0.02 a share. But take out the one time gain from redoing loans and we would have been at 12M in equity or .004 a share. What one time item do you think will save them over Q3 and Q4? This pattern has been going on for four years there have been 4 deals each of which brought them back from near bankruptcy. Each of which increased number of shares and increased debt.
Do not forget this has not been without cost to the stock holders, the cost has been high. The first two deals had SPO’s at below market price diluting existing stock holders. Third deal Gave Mt K options on 174 M shares at $0.038 174M / 3.4 B shares = 5% dilution. This deal only lasted 5 months quite a price for 5 months. Last September 349M shares at 0.05 a 10% dilution. Then finally bounds that were supposed to be converted at $0.564 had the conversion price reduced to $0.10. $0.46 times 225M Bounds = US $135 M less that Lynas will receive, if bounds are converted. Plus Over 2 B new shares instead of about 400M. AS a stock holder are you happy with this? The 135 M is more than half the original loan. But wait there is a fixed conversion rate. “The Conversion Price for the Convertible Bonds will be reduced to A$0.10 and the exchange rate for conversion will be adjusted to US$1.00=A$0.75.” Now Jare was more friendly, sort of. I bring your attention to the following statement. “There will be no fixed principal repayments from unrestricted cash during the term of the facilities. The principal balances of both facilities will be repayable in 2020. Under the amendments, Lynas will defer until maturity fixed instalments totalling US$50 million that are due to JARE, under the current agreement, by December 2017.” So 50M of the 68M that came off this year goes back on in 2020. In conclusion I was very wrong about bankruptcy. But if you think the SH escaped Severe pain then please explain how. Why did AL give so much away to MtK? It was that or have MtK force bankruptcy. JARE did not want this they got much less in the deal. Even though Mt K was second if they called loan BK would have followed unless JARE put in another US $ 225M, Which apparently was more than they were willing to do. So AL had to give MT K allot. Do not misunderstand me. I never thought AL could pull this off. She did a great Job. To ignore the impact to company and stock holders is just burring your head in the sand. She did fine for position that NC legacy put her in.

"I have a suggestion for you. The next time I say something you do not like, why not give up past which everyone has heard many times. Pick up a pencil and paper or open a spread sheet and offer a counter argument based on facts of why I am wrong. I am sure you have the intelligence to do that. If I am always wrong it should be easy. I hope you understand that if it was not the forgiveness / delay of 69M in debt they most certainly would have been bankrupt. Can you find another company of about 200M in size that has had this much forgiven? Can you come up with any facts that shows why my assumption of BK were unreasonable? I would like to hear it. Was I wrong? most certainly on BK. Please show why it was an unreasonable assumption.
IF I am always wrong IT should be easy for you to take H1 ’16 Q3 ’16 Q4 ’16 and annual report ‘16. Show where even an instantaneous 100% jump in ASP in mid September could have covered the debt that was due in Dec ‘16. Nothing harder than Addition Subtraction and a little Multiplication and Division. You even have something that I did not, actual $ and volume sales figures for Q1 ’17 Q2’17 and P & L for H1 ’17. This makes it much easier. I am not saying only a 100% rise would have work. Even a 25% or 50% rise would have let AL show profitability and put her in a much stronger position. Just that 100% was needed to make payments due Dec '16

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"I have a suggestion for you. The next time I say something you do not like, why not give up past which everyone has heard many times. Pick up a pencil and paper or open a spread sheet and offer a counter argument based on facts of why I am wrong."

As others (and I) have repeatedly stated - discussing anything with you is a waste of time. I would rather let your past manipulative and distorted posts speak for themselves.

The fact that you don't like me posting them since they reveal your MO is just an additional benefit.

The more you post, the longer the list gets.

Have a nice weekend.

LYC Price at posting: 9.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $6.56		Change 0.090(1.39%)		Mkt cap ! $6.131B

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