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$6.51 lynas rare earths limited

A friendly reminder of ContraryJ's recent "projections" and...

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Gustavo100

989 Posts.

10/03/17

05:24

Post #: 23236400
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Originally posted by ContraryJ ↑

Your post on exports was very informative. For several years you have been saying that the Chinese’s have to be upset with low prices yet nothing happens to prices except continued slow long term decline. Are you looking at this with a purely Western view? The Chinese Learned in the price run up that high prices stimulate supply growth and demand decline. Much of their REE comes from mines where REE is only a small part of total output. How about looking at this as a deliberate plan to dominate in REE. Read my post # 23185562. Prices are rising but only in areas that help Chinese but do little for Lynas and other, as you call them, “Wanabees” Long term Chinese will have fare greater returns if competitors are gone! Not just in a holding pattern! Your concern with short term profit is very western. You have to step back and understand that their goals may be different than ours. I now understand that JARE will Keep Lynas afloat no matter what. I did not get this when you first told me. Jare has the same patience as the Chinese. JARE sees the strategic importance of Lynas to Japan’s manufacturing. Mt K only cares about cash. The options which they have started to exercise will cover the loss interests. If the price stays over $0.15 for a month or two they likely will convert bounds, slowly. For Mt K it is about getting out with no red on the investment. With JARE in control they will do what is needed to keep the Lynas running at max capability. If the Chinese do not let prices rise then there will be only neutral earnings and little chance for stock gain. Jare will do whatever is needed to keep them going but has no motivation to have them show profit. Look at the last 4 refinances Got them out of the Jam each time but major stock dilution last two. Never a permanent solution. Higher stock prices does little for JARE.

No motivation does not mean they will prevent profits. If profits come they will be happy. It means they will have to put less $ in. I am only saying they are not going to lose money so Lynas can have profits. They will lose money to keep them running.

Assuming MTK exercises all options and then coverts all the bonds and there are 6B + shares What Kind of ASP growth do they need to retire half the JARE Debt and make a penny a share in 2020?

Right now supply and demand are near balance. All Chinese would have to do is hold back 10% to 15% of production and prices would skyrocket, especially if they announced it with lots of fanfare, because people would be scarred and start stockpiling. Yet as you point out they increased exports. Go back to bubble they only cut off Japan which was not that much of their total. Look what happened. I should think when you see the production increases for 2017, after saying many times the Chinese would cut back to raise prices, you would step back and consider that profits may not even be in their top 3 objectives, that they are doing a great job of achieving their goals which we as westerners have a hard time understanding. Goal is to dominate market. Not just REE but many others as well.
Go back a hundred years and study the business barrens that built America. DuPont’s, Carnegie’s, Rockefellers and others. They would take high long term loses to destroy a competitor in any given area, business or geographical. They would use profits from other areas to do this. Number one objective build empire and a legacy.
“That must be driving the Chinese mandarins nutz, RE exports up another 10% YTD, with value reduced a further 5%, Deng's discounted legacy, lol.” I don’t think they are going nuts they are way too smart for that. They are carefully watching Lynas’s Q and Annual reports. They know they cannot force them out of business because of JARE (you taught me that) but they can keep them on ropes for a long time. They can foster an environment where no one can raise money to increase supply. That a couple of years of low prices will stimulating demand assuring a bright future. Read how Rockefeller gained total control of Kerosene market stimulated demand and then made a fortune. The major competitor in beginning was Whale oil then later start up petro companies. All were erased.

I welcome a thought out opposing view.

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A friendly reminder of ContraryJ's recent "projections" and "analysis."

He has consistently been wrong EVERY quarter since he started posting. His MO is to distort information and make people question Lynas' prospects.

ContraryJ is the only poster who consistently tries to spread FALSE information on an almost daily basis.

Let's review:

He repeatedly stated that Lynas would go bankrupt.

Lynas didn't go bankrupt.

He repeatedly stated that Lynas stockholders would get wiped out.

Stockholders didn't get wiped out. In fact, some have made some nice return on investment no thanks to him.

He stated that after the Mt. Kellett deal, Lynas shareholders would be lucky to get ONE PENNY a share.

Lynas is above 9 cents.

He said that Lynas would be cash flow negative Q2.

Lynas has $5 million as of Q2 report.

Why on earth would anyone take what he posts seriously?

More words of wisdom from ContraryJ:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/h1-details.3264791/?post_id=22994186#.WMGXq9m9Kc1

"Chinese’s have to be upset with low prices yet nothing happens to prices except continued slow long term decline."

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/first-feed-to-kiln.3185162/page-13?post_id=22443038#.WKeUGNm9Kc0

"Unfortunately the nice (RE) price increases we saw early (2017) Q2 did not seem to have any momentum."

Don't know what planet you live in but rare earth prices have now been steadily climbing for a few months.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/first-feed-to-kiln.3185162/page-4?post_id=22377803#.WKeYENm9Kc0

Right after 2017 Q2 report:

"How much equity do you really think there is if the plant is sold in a liquidation sale."

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/q2-thoughts.3183620/?post_id=22128722#.WKeZJ9m9Kc0

"Congratulations on the first unqualified positive cash flow. Cash Q to Q went up, $0.843M. Can we expect it to go up next Q (2017 Q3)? Highly unlikely."

A reminder of ContraryJ's Greatest Hits:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/q2-thoughts.3183620/?post_id=22128722

"The Q report is much better than I expected. Wish I had held off selling"

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/pro-one-for-cj.3159446/page-5?post_id=21868133

"Would you agree there is not even a trace amount of Pr in high performance Magnets."

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/decreased-holdings.3177290/?post_id=22054958#.WIOjBtm9Kc0

"I expect a small decrease in total cash this Q (2017 Q2)... The combination of higher energy prices and CE flat La a up slightly and NdPr down slightly in last 7 to 9 weeks. REE prices will cause a steady decrease in cash."

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/asi...3053084/page-12?post_id=20733407#.WDBe6dm9Kc0

"(2017) Q2 will be so so. Maybe negative total cash flow"

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/qu...3089672/page-12?post_id=21133484#.WIaudtm9Kc0

"I assume there is more SEG. I doubt they can sell most of it. I do believe that there is limited open SEG processing available. That is why it is hard to sell."

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/asian-metal-prices.3074438/page-11?post_id=21013874#.WIaxudm9Kc0

"It is my opinion that total cash will be down (2017) Q1 to Q2."

To add to your previous predictions:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/i-missed-big-time.2931056/?post_id=19503956#.WD93RtQrLDc

"I missed BIG TIME"

"Loses were not nearly as bad as I thought. Loss was 34M I predicted. $60M"

"On Stock holders equity I seem to have missed worse. Equity is now $71M 34 M of that was the streanthening of the AU$ against the US $ After this Equity was down to AU $35 M still much larger than my predicted. 10M."

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/capital-raising.2931335/page-108?post_id=19723733#.WEzLbtQrLDc

"When the (Mt. Kellett deal) vote comes you will have two choices. Vote yes and MAYBE get a penny a share and Lynas keeps running. Vote no shut them down and get nothing."

LYC Price at posting: 9.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $6.51		Change -0.050(0.76%)		Mkt cap ! $6.085B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.60	$6.61	$6.49	$13.64M	2.089M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	40310	$6.48

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$6.52	711	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	40310	6.480
6	48075	6.470
3	24132	6.460
4	14423	6.450
3	15000	6.420

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.520	711	2
6.530	36777	6
6.540	24497	6
6.550	16310	2
6.560	12310	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 06/05/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last $6.51			Change -0.050 ( 0.64 %)
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