Thanks, but there might be one key difference.Will the next...

Thanks, but there might be one key difference.
Will the next decade be the same as the last decade. ie a decade of lower and lower interest rates, of MMP (modern monetary policy, with central banks buying debt to force down interest rates), of a decade end of zero or negative interest rates.?????

If not, then the risk free return comes into play.

Notice that when the risk free return was a decent rate (as reflected by 10yr government bonds), say 3-4%, then the corresponding PE of CSL was lower. That's because its factoring in the risk free rate of return plus a risk premium. When the risk free rate of return is effectively zero, then that just leaves the premium. If the premium is say 2% for a quality stock like CSL, then theoretically under this scenario, CSL could trade at a PE of 50.

If risk free return is 4% +2% risk premium. Then theoretically CSL should trade at a PE of 18.

Very very simple analysis, which disregards the growth factor of future earnings of CSL.

But I prefer to be generally correct, than precisely wrong.

Like you I am watching.

But I am not ready to strike yet.

Still on the sidelines...

patience....
patience...