maybe you'd better re-read Sections 13, 28 & 32 of the Constitution, Reaper. In a 'normal' cycle Aug 6 is the earliest an election could be called. The only way a July election could be held is via a d-d. Your statement is erroneous.
(I took $300 @ 5.0 with William Hill re outside the normal Aug-Dec election dates a while ago; ie I backed July. I laid off and too $600 @ 2.5 with Sportsbet for a non-July date yesterday, and so I win $600 irrespective of when it is. However, if by some weird development the election is delayed beyond Xmas I win both - $3k return for a $900 outlay, $2100 profit)
Supafly would appreciate the arbitrage logic, as would anyone else with a long-term gambling background.
PRICE UPDATE
(predictably) Sportsbet have wound in a non-July price to 2.25
William Hill is still betting 2.15 about a d-d (therefore a July election)
Outlay $2k and have a grand on each. Whatever happens you win either $150 or $250. Better than bank interest.
