Nice post Option5. Probably preaching to the converted here but...

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27/08/19

13:20

Post #: 40172999
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Originally posted by option5: ↑

Lomu, I agree.

Image it is 1900 and proponents of the first vehicles suggest the utility of ICE engines (as opposed to horses). Image all the future predictors at that time and their (reasonably valid) objections:

Well they travel slower than horses.
They cost much much more.
They are less reliable.
They can't really pull any load.
They cannot travel over anything but formed roads.
How are you going to obtain and store the explosive fuel needed.
Horses (generally) don't break down.
Horses don't run out of fuel in the middle of nowhere.
Who is going to repair them (no ICE skilled "mechanics").
The steel and material for ICE is very expensive, resource intensive and generate a lot of carbon (not likely concern in 1895!)
What do do with the ICE after that end their useful life- horses get eaten, can't do that with cars.

All completely true at the time. However don't see too many horses around these days, on my street.

Meanwhile a little over hundred years later there are billions of ICE around the world, with the "explosive" fuel stored in the fuel tanks parked next to your house or in the street.

A whole massive industry developed drilling for and refining oil and sending it to every corner of earth.
Impossible to predict in 1900, almost laughable.

EVs will be exactly the same. Their advantages over ICE will get better and better, they will become cheaper (particularly "whole of ownership cost") and 98% of people will find an EV meets all of their needs. Whether that be towing (LOL a EV has much more instant torque than any ICE), in an SUV, in a truck or as a sports car (they are very fast) or a runabout for mum.

The infrastructure will develop rapidly (who could predicted a petrol garage every 1 km in 1900 to service ICE!), most people will charge at home (and yes that includes appartments- they cabled for internet and they will cable for EVs). EVs will mostly be charged at night when there is significant "surplus" capacity. And yes, demand for electricity will rise - and this will be provided for, just like the supertankers now crossing the globe with oil bringing your fuel to a local garage would have been unthinkable in 1900.

People will accept charging their EV is required - like charging your iPhone. Did you need to charge your home phone in 1980? Do you still have a home phone? You will charge at the supermarket, at the football, in the street, at home, in fact everywhere/anywhere. Supercharger technology is improving daily. The 15 min charge for another approximately 300km range is already a fact in the USA (Telsa V3 superchargers).

Timeframe for all this? My guess 10-15 years. 2030-35.

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Nice post Option5. Probably preaching to the converted here but have a look at this video.
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