...all the narrative about EV growth, lithium being a critical mineral, pointing to lithium being a key mineral resource,....they are not wrong, lithium is here to stay, it is not dead.
...but there is difference to when it can get to a pricing level reasonably high enough to re-rate lithium stocks valuation levels.
...AND that is the difference lithium enthusiasts don't want to talk about. Because we now have a big lithium stale bull community around the world, riding just on the narrative that lithium would recover in line with EV growth.
My take is that the soft landing scenario isn't going to happen, now the spectre of Stagflation is growing louder.
The Fed is likely to stay pat on rates for longer, but long enough to tilt the economy into recession in 2025.
That would crush auto demand including EVs , China's 80 EV makers would likely go bust into just top 5-10. Battery and lithium oversupply and overcapacity would stay protracted.
If Lithium stocks can't make any ground while US market is flying, it certainly won't when the US economy falters and equities move into bear correction mode.
In short, lithium stocks do not have enough time to recover before the eventual equties meltdown happen.
