EV/Lithium, page-194

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30/04/24

00:25

Post #: 73569619
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Originally posted by 1ronnie: ↑

..what happens if Tesla starts replacing its lithium-ion batteries with sodium-ion? It may not happen so soon (1-3 years) but thereafter anything is possible judging from the speed at which CATL battery technology is progressing.

..Elon Musk is not married to anything, least of all lithium, otherwise he would have already bought into a lithium mine long ago. Because lower battery costs play a big role in EV competition.

..with due time, expect the Chinese to be able to make sodium-ion batteries comparable to lithium in functionality. Imagine what that would do to Chinese EV prices- they would get even cheaper and Tesla would have no choice but to follow suit.

..Get this- the Chinese are controlling the EV battery space and they would do whatever it takes to lower battery costs even more over time. The other reason China is placing its bet on sodium-ion battery is a contingency in case it does not get enough of the lithium it needs especially when critical minerals like lithium become embroiled in geopolitics.

..We do not know what the longer term future holds for lithium in the EV battery space.

..With so much uncertainty on its short term (from demand) and now possibly it long term outlook (from usage), valuation premiums IMO aren't returning to the lithium stock space.

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Economically viable Sodium ion batteries are further away than Solid State and once Solid State does arrive then it will be very unlikely for any competing chemistry to gain a foothold. The only possible opening for Sodium ion would be if the Lithium price increases back to 2022 levels and even then it would only be for entry level models where the lowest purchase price is more important than value for money.
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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