Opinions are like belly buttons, everybody has one. You can say whatever you like, just tack on that iconic "IMHO" and she's all good... though that seems to happen less and less, especially when the pressure is on like at the moment. So much of what is being said on here is superficial and simplistic. For whatever reason, people like to niggle, put the boot in even. So we get these chestnuts like "too many shares on issue" and "sandpit" and "they're taking soooo long"... so on and so on repeated ad nauseum. And then there's the "I told you so" antics, "dead money for 2 years", "i invested in company X, I'm up Y%, look at me aren't I wonderful, aren't you all losers?". Sure, we're all here to make money, but how many fess up when they picked a dog instead of a winner? You want to jump in and out, good on you. Nobody else cares though.
But the debate is not that simple. Take all the "sky is falling" commentary about the copper price...yes, it clearly is woeful. But it is also only part of the story. The other part is currency. Eyeballing 1Yr charts for both copper price (*****) and exchange rates (xe), we get this:
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
| 1 |
|
Nov-14 |
Nov-15 |
Change |
| 2 |
USD Cu |
3.05 |
2.1 |
-31% |
| 3 |
AUD:USD |
0.87 |
0.71 |
|
| 4 |
AUD Cu |
3.51 |
2.96 |
-16% |
| 5 |
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
BRL:USD |
0.4 |
0.27 |
-33% |
| 7 |
AUD:USD |
0.87 |
0.71 |
|
| 8 |
AUD costs |
0.46 |
0.38 |
-17% |
In USD terms, copper has fallen 31%, but in AUD terms it is only 16% down. The BRL is down 33% against the USD, and 17% against the Aussie. AVB will be earning in USD, and paying in BRL...in other words if you are an Aussie investor you compare the 16% and 17% figures. The Kiwi's can do their own thing. All up we are little changed in profitability from a year ago. If you don't understand this, or didn't know this, you should review if you're investing in the right place for you.
Second, yes there is a lot of scrip, but there are lots of companies with billions of shares on issue. What matters is earnings. We could do a 1 for 10 consolidation to put all the nervous minds at ease, (and I almost wish we did so just to kill the boring repetition of this issue being pronounced as some kind of unassailable wisdom. You might as well just start answering "because I said so", it has as much thought behind it) but if the earnings growth ain't there it will not make a shred of difference. There are some on HC who don't realise going from 6c to 8c is exactly the same as going from 60c to 80c. If this is you, you have no idea what you are doing. Go invest in a bank deposit instead.
And whoever said they're taking too long to do this, geez it was only discovered 4 years ago. Average time to production is 7 years (I'm going from memory, so I suppose I should add IMO...). No company operates in isolation, the market environment has been awful and that affects everyone. The difference between a explorer/developer and proven low-cost producer (with no debt) is chalk and cheese, but the market needs to see you really are a low-cost producer, we are getting close to seeing that bear out.
What each of us needs to decide is what we believe about earnings. That means volume and margin. I'm not going to repeat all the detail here, go and look it up if you don't know it, but for starters come to your own view, based on the loads of info from the company (and that's a key point...forget the "I reckon" analysis, why would you know any better than the company?), of do they have the copper there or not, and what level of annual production are they going to get out; scenario test different combinations of price, exchange rates against the costs of production; and investigate how much potential is there beyond AN (but remember, this is potential...the market will pay for cashflow, but not potential, at least not until there is further derisking - this will however inform views on the earnings growth over coming years, albeit there's a subjectivity/risk-weighting to it). Get familiar with the sensitivity. If you don't have a model, you could do a lot worse than using the spreadsheet Kalenn has posted several times.
IMHO many posters have a short time frame for their investment. I don't know if that's because retirement is nearing, they took a punt and just want to get the quick win, or something else. It would explain the hyper sensitivity to the smallest of details and the flip-flopping back and forth. This is the spec end of the market, it is risky, and everybody (attuned to this fact or not) has gained an education in what risk can mean. If you don't like it, go to the race track instead, it will almost certainly be much more painful financially, but it will be all over in a moment and you can move on. Be thankful management is wholly focused on getting AN up and running - it is a major de-risking moment and you now all know how valuable de-risking is.
IMHO if you don't have the patience to wait any longer, sell and move on. After all, there are so many stocks you could have picked instead of AVB, I'm sure your next pick will be just awesome.
IMHO if you don't have anything new and informative to add to the discussion, don't post. Ban the drivel.
IMHO if you don't think your investment is going to hit your goals, sell and move on. No one wants to hear your whining. Be an adult, take responsibility, and do something to improve your situation rather than just talk about it. If you don't know what to do about it, sell and invest in your mortgage or a deposit instead. You won't get rich quick, but you won't get poor quick either and best of all you'll sleep better.
Admittedly, a bit grumpy/snarky, but the fluff and whining has finally got to me. I'll take a self-imposed HC break...
