Hi all, gold is a relatively new area for me so I'm still wrapping my head around valuation in this space - can anyone with more experience investing in companies like AUL give some analysis of what the current fair value of AUL should be and what could affect it in the short to medium term?
From what I can tell based on my own analysis $13m is very undervalued, with significant upside potential once more ROD data comes in, but the market isn't responding as if that's true so I'm questioning whether I've considered all relevant factors.
My analysis:
I looked first at the ROD acquisition and the market's response didn't make sense:
- 28.5 million shares @ ~0.8c/ea with 12 month selling restriction ($225,000)
- 30 million options @ 1.5 cents, expiring 30 November 2019 (~$450,000)
- 15 million options @ 2 cents, expiring on 30 November 2021 (~$300,000)
That totals $975,000 for 51% (with 77% of the price contingent on future performance) for a total asset valuation of ~$1.9 million, with no cash payment and no possibility of liquidation before mid-2019. ROD closed in 1926, before when mines still used dynamite for blasting, air-drills didn't exist and haulage relied on hand shoveling, but still produced 37,000 ounces (current value AUD $63 million) and closed due to a collapse and the falling grade, which was 'only' 12.5g/t - unprofitable back in the day, but would now be considered a high-grade mine by the World Gold Council. $1.9m would be a worst case scenario valuation.
Then I looked at location. Walhalla to Woods Point gold field is one of the most significant in Australian history with gold production having exceeded 6 million ounces. AUL's tenement is 667 km2 giving them huge exploration potential.
Then I looked at Morning Star. In the late 1950’s Morning Star was one of Australia’s largest gold mines having producing over 800,000 ounces at an average grade of 26.5 g/t. This is 4.3g/t higher than Macassa Gold Mine (22.2g/t), which is currently the second-highest grade gold mine in the world.
Morning Star has been fully refurbished to 10 level, and comes with an 80,000 tonne per annum processing plant and associated paste backfill facility, with all supporting infrastructure. This is the only permitted processing plant on the entire gold field.
With ROD at $1.9m, you'd have to value all of that, plus future revenues, plus speculative value, at just $11 million.
