"In any case, even the most pessimistic forecast I can think...

"In any case, even the most pessimistic forecast I can think of, except for a total system fail, has FBR doing very well for me over the years, despite the anticipated dilutions.
Risk to me is about assigning my best guess probabilities on what I believe to be the floor or downside scenarios as it relates to Operating Income/cash flow. This to me provides the margin of safety. Uncertain upside in my view provides pure optionality. The floor speaks to downside protection and protection of capital."

Do you assign a portfolio weighting when you assess risk?

Something like 70% of asx stocks are regarded as 'zombie' stocks, and over 90% of stocks eventually go broke without ever making a profit. Nearly all successful tech stocks are either funded by venture capital or taken out very early. When fbr listed VC were funding almost any pile of crap. Reverse listing is what you do when you don't have any better options- none have ever made a profit.

You are clearly financially savvy, but I don't think you are cynical enough when it comes to human nature. Fbr directors have continued to be paid as the share price plummets and they issue endless shares. The general idea for speccies is to extract as much money out of shareholders as possible before going bust. Hence the lack of buying by directors. The asx makes real estate agents and car salesman look like Church deacons.

The chances of this going bust is not inconsequential. Portfolio limits should reflect this.