Greetings all
Discussions have become a bit disjointed lately with new threads created and old threads resurrected for numerous topics. So in a potentially vain attempt to make things easier to follow, here's a General Discussion thread to capture any non announcement discussions. A seperate fresh Charts & TA thread for those interested in discussing technical analysis, and a Media thread for posting any interesting discoveries people find in publications or social media may also be helpful.
While discussions are as animated as ever, my sentiment on FBR continues to be unchanged. I honestly have no qualms with the speed of progress and the comms effort. The latest blog post was a good affirmation for what I envisaged going on behind the scenes.
Almost a year ago, just prior to the first structure being built, I wrote about the achievements to date. Since Nov 18 there has been a few additions:
View attachment 1790318Obviously CAT dropping off has been a big concern, and evidently the biggest catalyst for the share price. Ultimately though, it started as an MOU and was mutually withdrawn, (unless you believe mgmt lied).
As far as technical issues, I find it hard to believe that with all of the building partners on board that they won’t overcome any obstacles. And even if the machine isn’t capable of a particular task, it may simply mean a portion of the market won’t be looked at.
A key concern raised at the moment is the performance shares. The Pivac’s are the founding partners, protecting their interests, according to legal entitlements. Arguably anyone else in their position would do that same with so much at stake. If they were dumping shares, then I’d be concerned. IMO this is fine although I understand why some may take issue with a perceived lack of clarity or massaging of deliverables.
As for the share price. 3 years on, we've had a year of 3 or 4 quick spikes, followed by two years of slow decline. With perfect hindsight, obviously CAT and KSA got many overexcited. It would be easy to say people are just too impatient and the reality of delivering such a complex undertaking has caught people unawares. Although in fairness to retail investors… for all my positivity on FBR… I am considerably more cynical when it comes to the involvement of institutional investors, on any stock. IMO, the share price decline is a controlled manipulation to accumulate shares. Which is why, despite 20 years in corporate finance, I don’t bother with valuation models on companies at this early stage. On spec stocks, pick your sentiment, take a position, leave room to top up within your portfolio.
Looking forward to more logical and rational debate, both positive and negative. Hopefully no more discussions have to descend into posting shoe ads from amazon.
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