Did we get guidance on when MRE is due?
If PFS cannot use any inferred at all, then we need the MRE to show much more M&I.
Eg. RPM is 340koz M&I, 900koz inferred. Korbel is 3.09Moz indicated, 3.55Moz inferred. Cathedral is not applicable. SS2 was able to use that inferred, PFS cannot.
Inferred: all of South, all of Valley, part of North.
So RPM's numbers can work for SS2, but not for PFS (which doesn't allow inferred). There may be no way to release an RPM-focused PFS, if the Valley and South pits had to be removed due to inferred resources (if the upcoming MRE does not show them jumping to M&I).
So the question: are those black drill traces enough to upgrade much of those inferred oz? Valley is still looking quite sparsely drilled. South still has no drilling uphill, and no new drilling on the right side. The main positive is North Uphill, which is quite dense drilling, which may upgrade and expand North's M&I.
But considering the look of those drill traces, I'm a bit doubtful that Valley and South will be upgraded enough in the MRE to be usable in PFS.
So either:
1. PFS gets delayed, so there is time to upgrade RPM more, until all 3 of those pits can be justified using M&I resources instead of inferred.
2. They change the focus of PFS to Korbel and RPM North only (South and Valley pits disappear from PFS, so as not to delay PFS by an extra season). Eg. the heap leach statements showing a refocus on Korbel. Korbel got no new drilling last season? So we know what we've got there - 3.09Moz M&I. No new drilling needed to be able to use those Oz, so no delay for drilling needed - just additional studies and adjustments to make Korbel more economic.
3. Or I'm wrong, and there's a big jump in M&I and all 3 RPM pits can continue to exist.
I want to see the above diagram updated after the MRE. It will be quite insightful - whether or not South and Valley got upgraded to M&I, and whether they're ready for inclusion in PFS.
But I get the feeling that PFS is being pushed back to 2025 because of the need for more drilling, like the scenario described above - South and Valley remaining as mainly inferred in the upcoming MRE, and not wanting to release a PFS that removes the South and Valley pits. So a couple of reasons to delay PFS to 2025:
1. Upgrade RPM more, to M&I, so all 3 pits can still exist.
2. Improve the economics of Korbel - studies needed.
If MRE was released now, and PFS had to be released next month, it might show a barely economic Korbel, and just 500koz from RPM North, with no South or Valley pits. So a downgrade from SS2. So we apparently have to wait.
They already gave guidance of PFS coming in 2025 though, so the above is not really a negative, just showing what needs to be done before it's even reasonable to release a PFS, and why PFS is not coming in 2024.
The checklist of things we need to see:
1. Upcoming MRE, and M&I in particular. Soon? M&I may show an upgrade, but still be too low for PFS. It should show what is still under-drilled, especially if they separate Valley's numbers from North's. H1-CY24?
2. More drilling to upgrade the M&I further where needed, maybe Valley and South, and potentially any new North Uphill inferred resources. CY24
3. An updated MRE again, with lots of M&I. This is the progress needed. H1-CY25?
4. Successful studies. Eg. increasing heap leach recoveries for Korbel. CY24-25
5. By-products showing up in MRE. CY24-25
6. I'd like to see the pit wall angles updated in Vrify, but that may only be reasonable to release in SS2 and PFS, so no early updates due on pit outlines.
7. PFS H2-CY25
With those completed, I'm hopeful that PFS can show some improvements due to various factors like: North Uphill, heap leach agglomeration, pit slope changes.
So it seems like 2024 is the year of building a foundation for PFS, since without a lot of M&I, there's no good way to quickly jump from SS2 to PFS.
An interesting little quote (paraphrased): PEA (SS2) rarely leads straight to development, a particularly strong PFS can occasionally lead straight to development if funded by equity, DFS is what normally leads to achieving regular funding. For the people wondering 'why not mining yesterday'.
Stibium is likely the one with best odds of an accelerated development, skipping past some stages for a simple mini plant, using grants (even if the odds are low). For the rest of the project, it seems to need to wait on DFS (as the company timeline shows).
(20min delay)
