@toteman ... Hastings tech has an ordinary grade of niobium...

@toteman ... Hastings tech has an ordinary grade of niobium 0.35%, between them and us here it reminds me of the difference between Sandfire and Rex Minerals.

Both were copper discoveries, with Sandfire being the much higher grade, and more than enough for a very profitable mine. Rex has a much lower grade of copper but a larger overall resource. Sandfire was developed and mined quickly, Rex is still trying to raise funding.

On paper they both looked great investments having hugely profitable NPV, yet Sandfire clearly won out for investors..

It all comes down to economics, especially the IRR. Sandfire could produce high grade concentrate quickly to repay all development costs in a very short period of time, while Rex would take a lot longer to recover development costs (larger more expensive plant), making Sandfire a much better bet for an unknown future of copper prices. Investment dollars flowed to Sandfire, making their ability to raise funds easier and develop quicker. All self fulfilling by investors seeing the opportunity for quick payback.

In the case of HAS and WA1, we have 4-7 times the grade, depending on what they go for in the MRE, but I'll bet at least a high grade kernel capable of fast development and high investor returns, of 2%+ grade, 6-7 times the grade of HAS. This means we can build a cheaper plant of, something like 1Mt/a, while they have to build a 7Mt/a plant to equal our output.(that's assuming recovery is the same and it's usually better with higher grade!!)

This will cost multiples of our plant, in both capital and operating costs, meaning WA1 will pay back development costs much faster than HAS in every scenario. None of us know niobium prices in the future, so WA1 is always the better bet, which attracts investment dollars, so becomes self fulfilling...

It's totally why I keep stating grade is king, as the system of feedback loops keep reinforcing the high grade resource with reasonable size as the most profitable one overall. IMHO WA1 will be operating a greatly profitable mine in 5-6 years time, while HAS 'might' still be looking for funding, just like Rex minerals, and suffer great dilution in the process.

If I had some spare dollars to invest in rare earth like companies right now which would I buy, WA1 every time, for the reasons above, as there is nothing 'special' or 'spectacular' about HAS. I did top up 2.5 weeks ago, when the price went down after more spectacular results!!