In regards to China, I agree no one can rely on their data but by observing how they approach their future growth it seems to me they are really determined not to rely too much on iron ore and coal.
The real estate developers account for about 35% of Chinese steel demand and they are going to go through a large "downsizing" over the next 6 months or so. China introduced a policy a couple of years ago that limits the amount they can borrow and most of the large developers aren't able to increase debt so are having major liquidity problems and demand for new apartments is falling partly due to this. I can see some major systemic problems happening in China over the next few months as most banks and companies don't want to admit how much debt they really have and local governments have a lot of debt as well and rely on land sales for most of their revenue.
This is a breakdown of large developers in relation to the 3 Red Lines from january, Evergrande is prominent at the moment but they are almost all tapped out as far as increasing debt to raise cash.
