Please read my 'what is real money' post above, it explain my central idea of everything, I do not hold an opinion on whether gold is money or not, what I trying to express is that you can't be right all time holding just one view, and for my high standard, you will only be correct if you change your belief timely. I think I never said gold cant be a hedge on rampant inflation in my previous post, remember what is real money change from time to time, for Zimbabwe during that time gold is money because their money system failed. For Weimar it is money because the world haven't out from gold standard. However, modern economy during good time where economy performing, inflation moderate, people less willing to buy gold as investment, gold cant be used as chronic inflation hedge, gold price will not keep pace with inflation in that scenario. An increase of M2 money supply do not always lead to increase of gold price merely because gold is limited or it is money, however back to my central idea, if more and more people believe gold is money and willing to buy gold, adjust money supply expectation into gold price and willing to transact items in gold, then gold will be money. If you think that situation is happening in coming short years, then you are right. If not, then you are wrong (sorry please use my high standard, if you think credit based money is total disaster in next 10-20 years and buy lots of gold, and in future turn out to be that way, then you are right, likewise if that happen just before you past away, you might be wrong for most of your life although you might claim your spiritual victory for getting thing 'finally' right).
I never mentioned in my previous post saying US treasury is money, so what is your point? Bank note itself is a form of IOU that used as money for transaction, people accept this, while treasury is a investment vehicle that you use your 'iou' to buy and invest.
Only thing I should clarify is debt as I may sound it is totally doesn't matter on my previous post. There is a tipping point where debt become utterly unsustainable, where you cant wait any longer to change the situation, the disaster is imminent. However, high debt like in US or Japan, although risky, there is still some distance from that tipping point. My point is, where there is hope and investment money willing to flow to, there will be economy growth, there will be jobs, there will be robust economy activity. Much flawed studied trying to use empirical evidence to show that once national debt level over 100%, there will not be growth that strong enough to offset the growth in debt. However not only the evidence isn't strong, it doesn't quite intuitively correct. Economy is after all human being activity, even debt as high as over 100%, as long as there is some distance from the tipping debt point, if people is hopeful, new technological advancement, economy become more efficient, new growth engine etc, the growth can outweigh debt rise. Using Greece and Spain without thinking of their degree of monetary policy freedom and blindly used to explain as the consequence of high debt is totally wrong.
Whether US already starting to lose all its dominance is entirely up to your macro reading skill, different people will have different view, only time will tell. Old day people believe for the remaining of the human history, there will only be 2 super power which is USSR and US, for that time thing really seem that way without a doubt, well we knew what happen later on. And reason for US to lose all its dominance? China? China economy is not in a position to compete with US in term of innovativeness nor ability to driving global economy. Yes they make real products (earning penny and most of the product sale profit still goes to US), they have vast reserve (in dollar), and gold bug like to claim they are in their evil plan to go back to gold backed RMB by buying up all the gold in the world (oh...plz, they invent paper and people fail to realise during FED QE period, China M2 money supply internally is much greater than US). The ultimate crucial factor that determine whether a country influence will grow or halt: technology. Shale boom (potential a bubble), wearable tech, auto drive, algae fuel, pharmaceutical new drugs, robotic technology etc is all happen in US. China is just like bigger version of mexico with much clever races, it takes time for them to advance to next stage of economy growth that is innovation driven. It is only when that time point reach, China can be competitive with US and drag down US influence. China current model, GDP growth primarily driven by housing boom, then real product maker and not having a brand, copy cat, and influential in global economy because of trade focus for the purpose to trade resources that they needed from Australia, Canada, Africa, South east asia etc will not pull down US dominance, not in quality and impact.
