GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

Wombat, I don't know where the Dow/SP500 will eventually go to...

  1. 41,027 Posts.
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    Wombat, I don't know where the Dow/SP500 will eventually go to but @Goblin triple bottom is the sort of thinking I have been quietly anticipating because it is at a strong base. There is always a bounce at these key levels but much harder to know if there is sustaibanle run up.

    As a trade I have been anticipating a short squeeze in oil but not expecting a reversal. Hence I have been short USDCAD even though some may see it as quite risky. I am not expect the moon for this trade and manage it accordingly.

    Looking purely at the major indices especially the DJ30 can be misleading because the 30 largest stock are relatively stable and non volatile. You will not the Twitter hammering but it will move up and down so the daily ATR are usually a lot smaller than say mid caps. There is an indicator I used to play with that one can "measure" more accurately the consensus stocks movement, advance decline line. Not many charting package offer this tool though.

    I usually flip a chart of USDJPY EURUSD to gauge market sentiment simplistically before looking at bond yields etc.. It is a more binary measure the risk on or off conditions. XAU on the other hand emits confusing signals especially QE era stimulus. QE distortion has made the risk and gold relationship redefining textbook theories and I have given up anticipating. Reading the chart is much easier because price has been stamped on to it. You can see through price the smart or dumb money have been moving.
 
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