I don't want to sound like a smart knob but this is what has been happening....
2011 was the high and ever since we have had quite a few sucker bull swing. I expect that in gold or any price action for that mater. One never know which one remains a bull spike or a trend reversal. If one treats each as a bull spike and sell into strength using the gold daily or weekly as a timing tool then at least you won't compete with the bears for the exit door. Play the swing, wash repeat.
Currently the gold/usd daily chart I have just pigeon holed a local view to explain what I am looking,
View attachment 185837
That support lower orange line is the line in the sand. A flip level where if it breaks and close below then the bull case flips to the bear case. The arrow is just eyeballing the swing points, Higher peak higher trough so technically bullish trend (momentum from a bigger picture) has not broken yet. Until it does I will have to assume it has not broken. Price action is an art rather than a theoretical rule base science. Currently the momentum is very bearish but nothing goes down in a straight line. There will be a pull back wither from the various levels of support. If the next peak is lower then the immediately preceding one then I can make a case for momentum shifting to the down side.
If price should hit the arrow flip level support, I expect to see a deeper sell off in gold stocks than what happened today. On the stronger trending gold stocks you will see the reflection of all that sell off as a deeper retracement (pullback) in an otherwise continuing uptrend.
IF price breaks the flip level, I will then alter my bias to the with bear trend. This is the state of play
IF one has some sort of diversified exposure then these are the investors perhaps waiting for these types of scenario to be buying from the panic sellers. IF you are the sort who are/were fully invested in Gold only, then you decide your fate because you know where Gold price is heading hence fully loaded and perhaps wrong now (?) or else why would you be panicking and trying to offload this week. Keep filling your head with junk reports and opinions or follow gurus diligently who are able to predict price and time, you only got your self to blame in the current panic sentiment you built yourself into. BTW You here does not refer to "you" but a figure of speech. Good luck although I believe you make your own luck....
